Idioma:Español
La Serena v Ñublense
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
La Serena (Local)
Predicción 38.41%2.60momio equitativo
EV -1.27%
Ventaja -0.496%
Kelly -0.811%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.26%38.39%38.54%39.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.392.402.5744.44%41.78%41.67%38.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Ñublense (Visitante)
Predicción 33.14%3.02momio equitativo
EV -0.589%
Ventaja -0.196%
Kelly -0.294%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.04%33.01%33.08%34.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.772.773.0038.46%36.09%36.10%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 28.45%3.52momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -0.964%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.45%28.60%28.38%31.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.193.203.4035.09%31.31%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: La Serena (Local): 38.41%; Ñublense (Visitante): 33.14%; Empate: 28.45%. Para Ñublense (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.02. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.00, con un valor esperado de -0.589%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.31%EV -1.27%E -0.496%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.49%EV -7.88%E -2.83%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.20%EV -3.28%E -0.964%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 12:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.39%EV -3.96%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -3.24%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.74%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -3.96%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.69%EV -4.35%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.88%EV -2.91%E -0.993%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.42%EV -3.56%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.88%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -5.56%E -1.95%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -4.70%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -5.88%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.18%EV -6.27%E -2.57%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.76%EV -8.54%E -3.09%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.06%EV -5.55%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%EV -7.04%E -2.91%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.03%EV -7.42%E -3.08%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.87%EV -6.55%E -2.32%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-04 02:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 15:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -13.18%E -5.03%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -13.23%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -2.25%E -0.761%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 15:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-06 15:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.39%E -3.30%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -0.589%E -0.196%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -18.92%E -6.64%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.68%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.68%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.55%EV -12.19%E -4.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.03%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.52%EV -13.18%E -5.03%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -12.19%E -4.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.84% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |