The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Deportes Concepción v Ñublense

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 23:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportes Concepción (Local)

Prediction 37.22%2.69fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.78%37.14%37.19%38.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.462.502.6044.44%40.60%40.08%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ñublense (Visit)

Prediction 33.15%3.02fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.951%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.12%33.26%33.08%34.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.702.9640.00%36.78%37.04%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.62%3.38fair odd
EV +0.128%
Edge +0.038%
Kelly +0.054%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.38%29.60%29.73%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.633.083.103.3838.02%32.47%32.26%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportes Concepción (Local): 37.22%; Ñublense (Visit): 33.15%; Draw: 29.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.376. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.380, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.128%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.99%EV -8.43%E -3.43%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.63%EV -2.53%E -0.860%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.38%EV +0.128%E +0.038%K +0.054%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-06 23:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.22%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.73%EV -4.02%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 23:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.22%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.73%EV -4.02%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 23:30
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -4.34%E -1.69%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.53%EV -1.86%E -0.630%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.00%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 23:29
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-06 23:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -12.14%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-06 23:29
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 23:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 23:29
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.98%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.89%EV -12.81%E -4.87%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 23:30
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.98%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.89%EV -12.81%E -4.87%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 23:30
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.98%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.89%EV -12.81%E -4.87%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 23:25
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.98%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.89%EV -12.81%E -4.87%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 23:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.98%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.89%EV -12.81%E -4.87%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 23:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.98%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.89%EV -12.81%E -4.87%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 23:30
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.02%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.12%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -7.57%E -2.43%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-06 23:27
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 23:29
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 23:29
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-06 23:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -13.80%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-06 23:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -13.80%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-06 23:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -13.80%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-06 23:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.21%EV -7.32%E -2.94%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.28%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 23:29
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -6.20%E -2.46%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -4.52%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.65%E -3.16%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 23:30
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -6.20%E -2.46%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -4.52%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.65%E -3.16%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 23:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.15%EV -12.53%E -5.33%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.23%EV -15.46%E -6.06%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -9.65%E -3.16%K -4.71%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-06 23:29
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-06 23:29
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-06 23:29
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 23:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 23:30
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 23:30
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 23:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 23:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 23:29
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -11.41%E -4.79%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-06 23:29
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.45%EV -12.53%E -5.33%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.21%EV -12.14%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-06 23:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -14.39%E -6.26%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.20%EV -13.14%E -5.01%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -11.13%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-06 23:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -16.25%E -7.22%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.29%EV -17.12%E -6.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.72%EV -17.05%E -6.09%K -9.47%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-06 23:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 35.78%EV -14.39%E -6.26%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 32.92%EV -17.12%E -6.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.29%EV -22.09%E -8.40%K -13.55%G +0.000%21.5%2026-03-06 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.56%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-03-06 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.52%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01%1.0%2026-03-06 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.52%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%1.7%2026-03-06 23:30