L’École des cotes

Cobresal v La Serena

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-27 21:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

48 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cobresal (Local)

Prévision 36.52%2.74cote équitable
EV -2.86%
Avantage -1.08%
Kelly -1.72%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.40%36.64%36.45%40.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.272.482.502.6644.05%40.34%40.00%37.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

La Serena (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.42%2.91cote équitable
EV +6.35%
Avantage +2.05%
Kelly +3.04%
Croissance +0.193%

avec la cote maximale 3.09

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.52%34.26%34.44%35.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.692.683.0941.67%37.13%37.31%32.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.06%3.44cote équitable
EV -4.09%
Avantage -1.24%
Kelly -1.78%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.19%29.09%29.11%30.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.853.133.133.3035.09%31.94%31.90%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
GTbets2.33I 42.92%NM 40.47%EV -14.91%E -6.40%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.52%EV +6.35%E +2.05%K +3.04%G +0.193%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.54%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-27 20:44
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.60%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV +3.25%E +1.08%K +1.62%G +0.053%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.44%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-27 20:35
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.08%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -0.192%E -0.066%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:44
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.08%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -0.192%E -0.066%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:43
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.08%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -0.192%E -0.066%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:44
Unibet (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.08%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -0.192%E -0.066%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:44
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.08%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -0.192%E -0.066%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:44
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.08%E -5.50%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -0.192%E -0.066%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:44
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.05%EV -14.91%E -6.40%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.59%EV -0.881%E -0.306%K -0.469%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-27 20:44
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.91%E -0.671%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 20:35
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 38.84%EV -15.28%E -6.58%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -1.91%E -0.671%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -11.35%E -3.72%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-27 20:45
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.62%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.00%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.38%EV -5.83%E -1.80%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 20:49
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.62%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.00%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.38%EV -5.83%E -1.80%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 20:49
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 20:39
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 36.24%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.55%EV -3.98%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.21%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-27 20:50
Codere (IT)2.46I 40.65%NM 37.38%EV -10.16%E -4.13%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -5.35%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 20:39
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.35%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-27 20:46
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.60%EV -12.35%E -5.15%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -5.35%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -11.35%E -3.72%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-27 20:34
1xBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.03%EV -6.39%E -2.35%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.67%EV -9.32%E -2.99%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-27 20:54
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 20:54
Marathon Bet2.57I 38.91%NM 36.03%EV -6.15%E -2.39%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -9.32%E -2.99%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-27 20:53
BetUS2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 20:54
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -14.18%E -6.03%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-27 20:39
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.11%EV -5.78%E -2.24%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.77%EV -7.76%E -2.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 20:54
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.11%EV -5.78%E -2.24%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.77%EV -7.76%E -2.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 20:54
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.22%E -1.22%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 20:53
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 20:53
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-27 20:34
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-27 20:29
Unibet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 38.34%EV -17.10%E -7.53%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.84%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 28.82%EV -12.22%E -4.05%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-27 20:54
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.83%E -3.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-27 20:54
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.54%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-27 20:34
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-27 20:44
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.53%E -4.30%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-27 20:54
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-27 20:54
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-27 20:54
Parions Sport (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -16.01%E -6.96%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%15.3%2026-02-27 20:35
888sport2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 20:54
888sport (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 20:54
Mr Green (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 20:54
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 20:54
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 20:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 20:35
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 20:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 20:35
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -8.70%E -3.48%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%13.3%2026-02-27 20:54
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -12.35%E -5.15%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-27 20:54
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 36.16%EV -16.01%E -6.96%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.66%EV -17.40%E -7.25%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.18%EV -17.17%E -6.02%K -9.28%G +0.000%20.2%2026-02-27 20:54
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.00%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01%1.4%2026-02-27 20:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.00%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01%1.4%2026-02-27 20:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.17%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.89%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%1.6%2026-02-27 20:54
Smarkets2.68I 37.31%NM 35.93%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.89%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%3.8%2026-02-27 20:54