Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sport Recife v Cuiabá

Início: 2026-07-27 22:30 UTC

Final: Sport Recife 1–1 Cuiabá

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sport Recife (Local)

Previsão 43.11%2.32odd justa
EV -2.99%
Vantagem -1.33%
Kelly -2.39%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.13%43.33%43.04%46.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.902.092.102.2552.63%47.86%47.62%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cuiabá (Visitante)

Previsão 25.05%3.99odd justa
EV +5.22%
Vantagem +1.24%
Kelly +1.63%
Crescimento +0.085%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.22%24.92%25.06%25.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.783.704.2028.57%26.43%27.03%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.83%3.14odd justa
EV -4.50%
Vantagem -1.50%
Kelly -2.25%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.86%31.75%31.90%32.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.802.892.883.0035.71%34.62%34.72%33.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sport Recife (Local): 43.11%; Cuiabá (Visitante): 25.05%; Empate: 31.83%. Para Cuiabá (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.99. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.20, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.22%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +5.22%E +1.24%K +1.63%G +0.085%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 22:15
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.32%EV +0.463%E +0.115%K +0.154%G +0.001%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.14%EV -7.37%E -2.53%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 22:25
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.17%EV -15.50%E -7.91%K -16.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV +0.212%E +0.053%K +0.071%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.21%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 22:14
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.17%EV -16.79%E -8.70%K -18.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%EV -1.04%E -0.263%K -0.353%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.27%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-27 22:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.17%EV -16.79%E -8.70%K -18.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%EV -1.04%E -0.263%K -0.353%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.27%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-27 22:15
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.30%EV -17.22%E -8.97%K -18.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.51%EV -1.04%E -0.263%K -0.353%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.19%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-27 22:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.17%EV -18.08%E -9.52%K -20.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -2.29%E -0.588%K -0.791%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.33%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-27 22:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.17%EV -18.08%E -9.52%K -20.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -2.29%E -0.588%K -0.791%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.33%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-27 22:15
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.98%EV -3.42%E -1.53%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.82%EV -2.79%E -0.720%K -0.970%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -4.82%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.79%EV -2.99%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -3.55%E -0.921%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -4.82%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.79%EV -2.99%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -3.55%E -0.921%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -4.82%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 22:10
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.76%EV -6.01%E -2.76%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.80%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 22:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.10%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.80%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-27 22:05
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.83%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -4.80%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-27 22:10
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.05%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.05%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-27 22:20
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -5.15%E -2.34%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.09%E -2.07%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 22:05
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -4.50%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.07%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-27 22:10
Bovada🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.70%EV -6.87%E -3.18%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.37%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 22:23
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-27 22:25
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-27 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-27 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-27 22:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-27 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-27 22:15
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 22:09
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.28%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-27 22:10
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.26%EV -8.60%E -4.06%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.62%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-27 22:25
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-27 22:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -6.09%E -2.07%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-27 22:25
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-27 21:49
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-27 21:55
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.30%E -3.40%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-27 22:10
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-27 22:25
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-27 22:03
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.32%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-27 22:05
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-27 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-27 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-27 21:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.87%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-27 21:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.79%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.76%0.1%2026-07-27 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57%0.7%2026-07-27 22:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57%0.7%2026-07-27 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57%0.7%2026-07-27 22:05
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%1.0%2026-07-27 22:20