La escuela de los momiosEspañol
São Bernardo v Sport Recife
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
São Bernardo (Local)
Predicción 38.74%2.58momio equitativo
EV -1.21%
Ventaja -0.476%
Kelly -0.783%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.67%38.66%38.83%40.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.422.402.5544.44%41.32%41.67%39.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Sport Recife (Visitante)
Predicción 31.09%3.22momio equitativo
EV -0.186%
Ventaja -0.058%
Kelly -0.084%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.21
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.17%31.18%31.01%34.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.872.903.2139.22%34.81%34.48%31.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 30.17%3.32momio equitativo
EV -3.47%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -1.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.77%30.16%30.16%32.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.633.053.053.2038.02%32.79%32.79%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Casumo | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| betPARX | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -1.21%E -0.476%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| BetRivers | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -3.93%E -1.58%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.79%EV -16.04%E -5.94%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 13:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -4.70%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 13:10 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -4.70%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 13:10 |
| BetUS | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -4.70%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 13:10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.28%EV -5.09%E -2.08%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.98%EV -0.186%E -0.058%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.74%EV -5.58%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Coolbet | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.09%E -2.08%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 11:10 |
| 888sport | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -5.09%E -2.08%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-14 13:20 |
| William Hill | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -5.09%E -2.08%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-14 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -5.09%E -2.08%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-14 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -5.09%E -2.08%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-14 13:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.76%EV -5.86%E -2.41%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -18.22%E -6.93%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Grosvenor | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.76%EV -5.86%E -2.41%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -18.22%E -6.93%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| DraftKings | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -7.02%E -2.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-14 13:40 |
| 1xBet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -7.02%E -2.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.47%EV -4.85%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -8.30%E -2.73%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-14 13:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -7.02%E -2.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.72%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-12 17:40 |
| theScore Bet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.02%E -2.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.94%E -4.62%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-12 17:29 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.02%E -2.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -11.38%E -3.99%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-14 11:10 |
| TABtouch | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -7.02%E -2.93%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.06%EV -19.15%E -7.37%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.51%EV -5.47%E -1.80%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.51%EV -8.30%E -2.73%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-14 13:39 |
| NordicBet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -7.34%E -2.46%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-12 17:40 |
| Betsson | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -7.34%E -2.46%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-12 17:40 |
| betfred_uk | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -14.49%E -5.27%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-12 17:29 |
| LeoVegas | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.67%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.23%EV -20.71%E -8.12%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.67%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.23%EV -20.71%E -8.12%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.67%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.23%EV -20.71%E -8.12%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| SportsBet | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.15%EV -8.19%E -3.45%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -3.61%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.75%EV -8.19%E -3.45%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -8.27%E -2.80%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-14 02:10 |
| FanDuel | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.96%E -3.81%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -3.61%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| Bovada | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.16%EV -8.96%E -3.81%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 13:49 |
| PlayUp | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.96%E -3.81%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.83%E -3.39%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-14 13:40 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.90%E -4.74%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -6.72%E -2.24%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -10.90%E -4.74%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -10.45%E -3.63%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -20.66%E -7.86%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -12.84%E -5.70%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -3.61%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -11.01%E -3.73%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-14 13:30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -12.84%E -5.70%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -10.45%E -3.63%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-12 17:38 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01% | 0.8% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87% | 1.2% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87% | 1.2% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.20% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87% | 1.2% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |
| Smarkets | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58% | 2.2% | 2026-06-14 13:50 |