The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ponte Preta v Fortaleza

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 21:30 UTC

Final: Ponte Preta 2–2 Fortaleza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ponte Preta (Local)

Prediction 8.15%12.27fair odd
EV +14.14%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.154%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.71%8.06%8.21%9.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.7611.6614.0010.53%8.50%8.58%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortaleza (Visit)

Prediction 75.68%1.32fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -4.32%
Kelly -21.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.81%75.67%75.56%77.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.211.211.2587.72%82.54%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.17%6.18fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.47%16.27%16.23%18.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.675.606.1020.00%17.65%17.86%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 8.15%; Fortaleza (Visit): 75.68%; Draw: 16.17%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.27. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
Casumo🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
betPARX🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
Svenska Spel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV +14.14%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.154%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 21:25
SportsBet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +5.99%E +0.461%K +0.499%G +0.030%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 11:25
FanDuel🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +5.99%E +0.461%K +0.499%G +0.030%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.24%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 21:33
Coolbet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +5.99%E +0.461%K +0.499%G +0.030%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.57%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -7.03%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 20:20
Tipico (DE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV +5.99%E +0.461%K +0.499%G +0.030%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.66%EV -13.73%E -12.04%K -98.05%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.53%EV -7.84%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 18:30
BetRivers🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV +1.91%E +0.153%K +0.166%G +0.003%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.80%EV -9.94%E -8.36%K -52.33%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -7.03%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 20:35
Grosvenor🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV +1.91%E +0.153%K +0.166%G +0.003%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.62%EV -10.70%E -9.07%K -59.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -9.45%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV +1.91%E +0.153%K +0.166%G +0.003%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.62%EV -10.70%E -9.07%K -59.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -9.45%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.17%EV +1.91%E +0.153%K +0.166%G +0.003%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.55%EV -11.46%E -9.79%K -67.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 21:25
TABtouch🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.12%EV +1.91%E +0.153%K +0.166%G +0.003%1.16I 86.21%NM 76.70%EV -12.21%E -10.53%K -76.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 21:25
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.05%EV +1.91%E +0.153%K +0.166%G +0.003%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.63%EV -12.97%E -11.28%K -86.47%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.32%EV -12.69%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 21:25
1xBet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -2.17%E -0.180%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.06%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.12%EV -11.39%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 21:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -2.17%E -0.180%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 20:20
Marathon Bet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -2.17%E -0.180%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.05%EV -8.43%E -6.97%K -40.14%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.29%EV -8.65%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 19:50
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV -2.17%E -0.180%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.17%EV -10.70%E -9.07%K -59.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV -2.17%E -0.180%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.17%EV -10.70%E -9.07%K -59.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 21:20
BetUS🎯11.66I 8.58%NM 8.17%EV -4.94%E -0.423%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.21%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.62%EV -1.37%E -0.225%K -0.269%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 21:25
Pinnacle🎯11.61I 8.61%NM 8.19%EV -5.34%E -0.460%K -0.504%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.05%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.76%EV -2.50%E -0.415%K -0.497%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 21:05
betano_uk🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.83%EV -6.24%E -0.543%K -0.594%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.02%EV -9.19%E -7.66%K -45.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.15%EV -15.11%E -2.88%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 19:48
DraftKings🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 21:05
Betway🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 21:25
BetMGM🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -2.99%E -0.498%K -0.597%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.88%EV -6.92%E -5.62%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 21:20
Codere (IT)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.65%EV -6.92%E -5.62%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -12.69%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 21:20
PlayUp🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 21:25
theScore Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.88%EV -9.19%E -7.66%K -45.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -7.03%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 11:25
BoyleSports🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -9.19%E -7.66%K -45.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 09:45
Bet Victor🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -19.16%E -3.83%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 21:24
betfred_uk🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -10.32%E -0.938%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -9.19%E -7.66%K -45.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -19.16%E -3.83%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 11:24
Betsson🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -14.39%E -1.37%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.39%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.96%EV -13.50%E -2.52%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 21:20
NordicBet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -14.39%E -1.37%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.39%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.96%EV -13.50%E -2.52%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -18.47%E -1.85%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -9.45%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -18.47%E -1.85%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -5.40%E -4.32%K -21.61%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -9.45%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 21:10
LeoVegas🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -18.47%E -1.85%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.65%EV -6.16%E -4.97%K -25.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -7.03%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 21:20
Bovada🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -18.47%E -1.85%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.33%EV -6.16%E -4.97%K -25.66%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -9.45%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 21:04
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -18.47%E -1.85%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -9.19%E -7.66%K -45.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -7.03%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 19:25
Neds🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -22.55%E -2.37%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 21:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -22.55%E -2.37%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -22.55%E -2.37%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -7.67%E -6.29%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.07%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.77%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.90%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.9%2026-10-24 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.77%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.90%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.9%2026-10-24 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.77%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.90%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.9%2026-10-24 21:25
Matchbook◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.77%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.90%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.9%2026-10-24 21:25
Smarkets◎14.49I 6.90%NM 6.73%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.03%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.24%2.5%2026-10-24 21:15

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