The School of Odds
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Operario PR v Nautico PE

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 19:00 UTC

Final: Operario PR 2–6 Nautico PE

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 43.49%2.30fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.38%43.61%43.40%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.59%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nautico PE (Visit)

Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV -0.332%
Edge -0.088%
Kelly -0.120%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%26.43%26.58%27.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.493.503.7632.26%28.63%28.57%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.01%3.33fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.762%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.97%30.02%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.093.103.2535.71%32.40%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 43.49%; Nautico PE (Visit): 26.51%; Draw: 30.01%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.76, with an expected value of -0.332%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -4.33%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -4.33%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.58%EV -6.07%E -2.81%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.61%EV -0.332%E -0.088%K -0.120%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.81%EV -3.08%E -0.953%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 18:45
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.92%E -0.520%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:44
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:45
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.90%EV -6.94%E -3.24%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 18:45
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -7.81%E -3.68%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -2.48%E -0.762%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:40
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.98%E -1.24%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.11%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.02%EV -5.63%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.98%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -1.92%E -0.520%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 18:45
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 18:45
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.98%E -3.33%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 18:40
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.55%E -4.59%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 18:55
BetUS🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.55%E -4.59%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -8.48%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 18:55
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.47%EV -9.98%E -4.82%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -5.48%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.42%E -5.06%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -5.48%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 18:55
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -10.85%E -5.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.98%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.85%E -5.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -12.98%E -4.48%K -6.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-16 18:45
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.85%E -5.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -6.98%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 18:54
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -10.85%E -5.29%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -12.53%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.98%E -4.48%K -6.83%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-16 18:25
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -12.16%E -6.02%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -6.98%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -12.16%E -6.02%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -6.98%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -12.16%E -6.02%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -6.98%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.03%E -6.51%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -17.83%E -5.75%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -15.98%E -5.71%K -8.88%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-16 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-05-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-05-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-05-16 18:50