Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR v Juventude

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 23:00 UTC

Final: Operario PR 2–1 Juventude

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 38.94%2.57fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.903%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.56%38.95%38.95%41.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.372.362.5146.51%42.25%42.37%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juventude (Visit)

Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV -0.327%
Edge -0.091%
Kelly -0.126%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.79%27.72%27.68%30.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.393.403.6033.33%29.50%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.38%3.00fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.16%33.33%33.36%35.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.692.702.9041.67%37.12%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 38.94%; Juventude (Visit): 27.69%; Draw: 33.38%. For Juventude (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.327%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.35%EV -2.27%E -0.903%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.99%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.66%EV -4.55%E -1.59%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-05 22:40
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 22:40
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -12.79%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-05 22:50
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:29
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:29
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -0.327%E -0.091%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -13.22%E -5.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 22:30
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-05 22:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -14.17%E -4.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-05 22:50
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -3.10%E -0.885%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -14.89%E -5.84%K -9.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-05 22:29
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -14.17%E -4.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-05 22:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.14%EV -5.31%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.87%EV -8.55%E -3.12%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-05 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.63%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-05 22:49
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-05 22:49
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-05 22:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-05 22:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-05 22:50
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -16.94%E -5.65%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-05 22:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.88%EV -8.11%E -3.44%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -1.71%E -0.482%K -0.671%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-05 22:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.88%EV -8.11%E -3.44%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -1.71%E -0.482%K -0.671%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-05 22:50
BetUS🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.88%EV -8.11%E -3.44%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -1.71%E -0.482%K -0.671%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-05 22:50
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.10%E -0.885%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-05 22:49
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%EV -7.88%E -2.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 22:49
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.29%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -8.63%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -5.88%E -2.09%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-05 22:50
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.29%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -8.63%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -5.88%E -2.09%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-05 22:50
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -4.48%E -1.30%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.86%EV -16.56%E -6.62%K -11.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-05 22:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.91%EV -17.23%E -6.95%K -11.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-06-05 22:30
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.10%EV -9.28%E -3.98%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.79%EV -17.23%E -6.95%K -11.64%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-05 22:29
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -3.10%E -0.885%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-05 22:50
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.63%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-05 22:50
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.63%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-05 22:49
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-05 22:49
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-05 22:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-05 22:50
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-05 22:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-05 22:49
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-05 22:48
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -7.25%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -18.23%E -7.44%K -12.57%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-05 22:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.18%EV -12.39%E -5.51%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.03%EV -8.63%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%EV -19.90%E -8.29%K -14.21%G +0.000%16.4%2026-06-05 22:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -16.28%E -7.57%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -3.10%E -0.885%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-05 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.92%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.17%0.2%2026-06-05 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.92%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.17%0.2%2026-06-05 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.92%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.17%0.2%2026-06-05 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.78%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06%0.6%2026-06-05 22:50
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%1.4%2026-06-05 22:50