The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nautico PE v Ponte Preta

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nautico PE (Local)

Prediction 54.43%1.84fair odd
EV -5.28%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -7.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.57%54.38%55.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.701.7461.73%59.11%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ponte Preta (Visit)

Prediction 17.79%5.62fair odd
EV +4.95%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.82%17.61%17.95%18.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.175.105.9022.22%19.35%19.61%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.78%3.60fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%27.82%27.67%28.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.353.4533.33%29.96%29.85%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 54.43%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 17.79%; Draw: 27.78%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.62. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.89%EV -9.09%E -5.45%K -13.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV +4.95%E +0.840%K +1.01%G +0.050%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 20:54
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.18%EV -5.28%E -3.04%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.41%EV +4.07%E +0.695%K +0.838%G +0.034%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.41%EV -6.11%E -1.81%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 20:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.85%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.47%EV +3.18%E +0.548%K +0.662%G +0.021%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 20:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.85%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.47%EV +3.18%E +0.548%K +0.662%G +0.021%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 20:54
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.96%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV +2.29%E +0.398%K +0.481%G +0.011%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 20:55
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -2.16%E -0.393%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 20:54
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.41%EV -9.64%E -5.81%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -2.16%E -0.393%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-04 20:55
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.53%EV -11.82%E -7.29%K -19.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.36%EV -2.16%E -0.393%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 20:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -3.94%E -0.730%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.27%EV -8.89%E -2.71%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 20:54
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.08%EV -8.39%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 20:55
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.08%EV -8.39%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 20:54
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.37%E -3.71%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:45
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.62%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -9.28%E -1.82%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 20:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.69%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 20:55
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 20:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.76%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 20:54
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.64%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 20:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.64%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 20:45
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 20:54
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 20:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 20:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 20:55
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 20:53
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.87%EV -11.82%E -7.29%K -19.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -11.06%E -2.21%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -9.73%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 20:54
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -9.09%E -5.45%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -12.83%E -2.62%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 20:23
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.41%EV -12.83%E -2.62%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 20:23
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.41%EV -12.83%E -2.62%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 20:23
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.41%EV -12.83%E -2.62%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 20:23
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.37%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.71%EV -13.72%E -2.83%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.73%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 20:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.63%EV -11.82%E -7.29%K -19.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.95%EV -19.95%E -4.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.42%EV -16.67%E -5.56%K -8.33%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-04 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.47%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-04-04 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.61%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-04-04 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.61%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-04-04 20:54