The School of Odds

Nautico PE v Juventude

2026-07-05 23:30 — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (15 in analysis)

Option 1: Nautico PE (Local)

Odds
2.0050.00%Min
2.1945.67%Mean
2.2344.84%Median
2.3542.55%Max
Consensus probabilities
40.16%2.490Min
43.88%2.279Max
41.38%2.417Mean
41.16%2.430Median
41.27%2.423IQM
41.30%2.421Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.35 under the IQM model: 41.27%

EV -3.01%Edge -1.28%Kelly -2.23%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Juventude (Visit)

Odds
3.1232.05%Min
3.3729.64%Mean
3.4029.41%Median
3.5228.41%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.58%3.762Min
28.92%3.458Max
27.49%3.638Mean
27.40%3.650Median
27.42%3.647IQM
27.48%3.639Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.52 under the IQM model: 27.42%

EV -3.48%Edge -0.988%Kelly -1.38%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.8834.72%Min
2.9933.47%Mean
2.9533.90%Median
3.1531.75%Max
Consensus probabilities
29.53%3.386Min
32.33%3.093Max
31.13%3.212Mean
31.44%3.180Median
31.31%3.194IQM
31.22%3.203Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.15 under the IQM model: 31.31%

EV -1.39%Edge -0.440%Kelly -0.645%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

BookmakerNautico PE (Local) ▼Juventude (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.35I 42.55% NM 40.97%EV -3.01% E -1.28% K -2.23% G +0.000%3.52I 28.41% NM 27.35%EV -3.48% E -0.988% K -1.38% G +0.000%3.04I 32.89% NM 31.67%EV -4.83% E -1.59% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 12:55
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10% NM 40.69%EV -4.25% E -1.83% K -3.22% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 32.33%EV -8.59% E -2.94% K -4.47% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 13:44
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10% NM 40.69%EV -4.25% E -1.83% K -3.22% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 32.33%EV -8.59% E -2.94% K -4.47% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 13:45
DraftKings2.30I 43.48% NM 40.93%EV -5.07% E -2.21% K -3.90% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.69%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.38%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 12:59
Bovada2.26I 44.25% NM 40.75%EV -6.72% E -2.98% K -5.34% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.49%EV -8.14% E -2.43% K -3.46% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.76%EV -9.21% E -3.18% K -4.85% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:50
BetUS2.26I 44.25% NM 40.75%EV -6.72% E -2.98% K -5.34% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.49%EV -8.14% E -2.43% K -3.46% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.76%EV -9.21% E -3.18% K -4.85% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:54
Coolbet2.25I 44.44% NM 41.53%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.32%EV -9.51% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.15%EV -2.95% E -0.952% K -1.41% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 11:55
Betway2.25I 44.44% NM 41.46%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.44%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.10%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 12:50
Marathon Bet2.25I 44.44% NM 41.18%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.38I 29.59% NM 27.41%EV -7.32% E -2.16% K -3.07% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 31.41%EV -7.65% E -2.59% K -3.92% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-05 12:54
NordicBet2.25I 44.44% NM 41.11%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.21%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 31.68%EV -8.59% E -2.94% K -4.47% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-05 12:55
Betsson2.25I 44.44% NM 41.11%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.21%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 31.68%EV -8.59% E -2.94% K -4.47% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-05 12:55
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44% NM 41.02%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.15%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.83%EV -9.21% E -3.18% K -4.85% G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-05 12:55
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44% NM 40.94%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.35%EV -10.88% E -3.35% K -4.84% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.71%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-05 11:54
888sport2.25I 44.44% NM 40.93%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.09%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.98%EV -9.84% E -3.42% K -5.23% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:04
William Hill2.25I 44.44% NM 40.93%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.09%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.98%EV -9.84% E -3.42% K -5.23% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:04
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44% NM 40.93%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.09%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.98%EV -9.84% E -3.42% K -5.23% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:04
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44% NM 40.93%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.09%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.98%EV -9.84% E -3.42% K -5.23% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 12:04
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44% NM 40.91%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.89%EV -9.51% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 31.20%EV -7.65% E -2.59% K -3.92% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 14:09
PlayUp2.25I 44.44% NM 40.16%EV -7.14% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 28.68%EV -13.62% E -4.32% K -6.34% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.16%EV -9.21% E -3.18% K -4.85% G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-05 13:45
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84% NM 41.07%EV -7.96% E -3.57% K -6.47% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.34%EV -8.14% E -2.43% K -3.46% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.58%EV -9.21% E -3.18% K -4.85% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 12:54
SportsBet2.20I 45.45% NM 42.39%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.67% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 27.03%EV -5.40% E -1.56% K -2.20% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.58%EV -4.52% E -1.48% K -2.20% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 09:04
FanDuel2.20I 45.45% NM 42.01%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.67% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.18%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.81%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 09:05
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45% NM 41.01%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.67% G +0.000%3.12I 32.05% NM 28.92%EV -14.45% E -4.63% K -6.81% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.07%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-05 13:45
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45% NM 40.79%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.67% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.05%EV -12.25% E -3.83% K -5.57% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.16%EV -9.84% E -3.42% K -5.23% G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-05 11:54
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51% NM 42.23%EV -11.26% E -5.24% K -9.79% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.51%EV -9.51% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.26%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-05 09:04
Unibet2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 04:59
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 05:00
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 05:00
Casumo2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 04:59
betPARX2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 04:59
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 05:00
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17% NM 43.88%EV -12.50% E -5.90% K -11.16% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -4.03% E -1.15% K -1.61% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.53%EV -1.39% E -0.440% K -0.645% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 04:59
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62% NM 42.19%EV -13.33% E -6.35% K -12.12% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.26%EV -10.88% E -3.35% K -4.84% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 30.55%EV -9.21% E -3.18% K -4.85% G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-05 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62% NM 41.20%EV -13.33% E -6.35% K -12.12% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.91%EV -14.99% E -4.84% K -7.14% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 30.90%EV -12.34% E -4.41% K -6.86% G +0.000%15.6%2026-06-30 01:50
BetRivers2.08I 48.08% NM 43.60%EV -14.15% E -6.80% K -13.10% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.67%EV -6.77% E -1.99% K -2.82% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.73%EV -4.52% E -1.48% K -2.20% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 13:54
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78% NM 43.39%EV -15.39% E -7.51% K -14.66% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 26.96%EV -9.51% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.65%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-05 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.04I 49.02% NM 43.51%EV -15.80% E -7.75% K -15.20% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 26.90%EV -9.51% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.59%EV -6.08% E -2.03% K -3.04% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-05 04:59
TABtouch2.04I 49.02% NM 43.30%EV -15.80% E -7.75% K -15.20% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 26.76%EV -9.51% E -2.88% K -4.13% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 29.94%EV -7.65% E -2.59% K -3.92% G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-05 13:54
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00% NM 43.60%EV -17.45% E -8.73% K -17.45% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 26.83%EV -10.88% E -3.35% K -4.84% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 29.56%EV -7.65% E -2.59% K -3.92% G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-05 05:00
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00% NM 43.60%EV -17.45% E -8.73% K -17.45% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 26.83%EV -10.88% E -3.35% K -4.84% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 29.56%EV -7.65% E -2.59% K -3.92% G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-05 05:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerNautico PE (Local)Juventude (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%3.65I 27.40%3.10I 32.26%0.3%2026-07-05 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%3.60I 27.78%3.10I 32.26%0.7%2026-07-05 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%3.60I 27.78%3.10I 32.26%0.7%2026-07-05 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%3.60I 27.78%3.10I 32.26%0.7%2026-07-05 13:45
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%3.60I 27.78%3.10I 32.26%1.0%2026-07-05 14:05