The School of Odds

Nautico PE v Juventude

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 23:30 UTC

Final: Nautico PE 0–0 Juventude

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Nautico PE (Local)

Prediction 39.96%2.50fair odd
EV -6.10%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.98%39.97%39.95%41.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.232.312.302.3545%43%43%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Juventude (Visit)

Prediction 28.68%3.49fair odd
EV -0.476%
Edge -0.137%
Kelly -0.193%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%28.66%28.76%29.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.193.203.4734%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.88%31.37%31.29%32.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.953.0936%34%34%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.35%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -4.35%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 23:10
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 23:14
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:00
NordicBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -8.42%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 23:15
Betsson2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -8.42%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 23:15
Unibet (UK)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -9.05%E -3.12%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-05 23:15
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -11.09%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-05 23:15
Pinnacle2.34I 42.74%NM 41.12%EV -6.50%E -2.78%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.73%EV -0.476%E -0.137%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.14%EV -3.09%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 23:15
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 39.22%EV -6.50%E -2.78%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -9.65%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.05%E -3.12%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 23:15
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.47%EV -7.30%E -3.15%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.92%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.51%EV -6.54%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 23:25
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.47%EV -7.30%E -3.15%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.92%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.51%EV -6.54%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 23:25
BetRivers2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -7.30%E -3.15%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -12.52%E -4.11%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-05 23:00
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.48%E -0.731%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 23:19
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.91%E -1.97%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 23:15
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.35%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-05 23:25
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 23:20
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 23:10
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 23:14
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 23:10
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 23:10
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.09%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.05%E -3.12%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-05 23:25
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.96%E -4.65%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-05 23:15
Marathon Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.66%EV -8.90%E -3.90%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.92%EV -4.78%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.42%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-05 23:25
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 39.19%EV -8.90%E -3.90%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.78%EV -13.96%E -4.65%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-05 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 39.19%EV -8.90%E -3.90%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.78%EV -13.96%E -4.65%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-05 23:00
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.05%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.88%EV -10.51%E -3.37%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -9.05%E -3.12%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-05 23:18
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-05 23:24
TABtouch2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -15.39%E -5.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -10.62%E -3.73%K -5.74%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-05 22:59
Bovada2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%EV -10.50%E -4.69%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -3.92%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.27%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-05 23:23
BetUS2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%EV -10.50%E -4.69%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -3.92%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.27%EV -7.48%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-05 23:24
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 39.18%EV -10.90%E -4.89%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -15.39%E -5.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-05 23:00
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 39.18%EV -10.90%E -4.89%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -15.39%E -5.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-05 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-07-05 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91%1.1%2026-07-05 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91%1.1%2026-07-05 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91%1.1%2026-07-05 23:25
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%1.8%2026-07-05 23:20