The School of Odds
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Londrina v Goiás

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 36.70%2.72fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.610%
Kelly -0.974%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.32%36.78%36.82%38.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.482.452.6843.10%40.34%40.82%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Goiás (Visit)

Prediction 31.65%3.16fair odd
EV +2.88%
Edge +0.885%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.84%31.59%31.61%33.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.603.012.953.2538.46%33.19%33.90%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.64%3.16fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.93%31.62%31.57%32.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.882.903.0036.36%34.66%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 36.70%; Goiás (Visit): 31.65%; Draw: 31.64%. For Goiás (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -10.81%E -4.45%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 21:50
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -10.81%E -4.45%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -10.81%E -4.45%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -10.81%E -4.45%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 21:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -10.81%E -4.45%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -10.81%E -4.45%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 21:50
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -10.08%E -4.11%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.29%E +0.404%K +0.588%G +0.008%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 21:15
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -10.08%E -4.11%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV +1.29%E +0.404%K +0.588%G +0.008%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -8.87%E -3.08%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-01 21:25
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -12.65%E -5.31%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV +1.29%E +0.404%K +0.588%G +0.008%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -9.82%E -3.44%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-01 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.90%EV -13.75%E -5.85%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.02%EV -0.289%E -0.092%K -0.135%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.82%E -3.44%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 21:50
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -13.75%E -5.85%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -0.289%E -0.092%K -0.135%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-01 21:50
BetUS🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.45%EV -3.10%E -1.18%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.04%EV -1.87%E -0.604%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.51%EV -6.34%E -2.14%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-01 21:19
LeoVegas🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.81%EV -14.85%E -6.40%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -1.87%E -0.604%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.15%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.81%EV -14.85%E -6.40%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -1.87%E -0.604%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.15%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.81%EV -14.85%E -6.40%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -1.87%E -0.604%K -0.891%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.15%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.29%EV -2.74%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.43%EV -3.14%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -5.70%E -1.91%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-01 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.00%EV -1.64%E -0.610%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.63%EV -3.45%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.37%EV -5.70%E -1.91%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-01 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.00%EV -1.64%E -0.610%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.63%EV -3.45%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.37%EV -5.70%E -1.91%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-01 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -4.57%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -6.62%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-01 21:49
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -8.24%E -3.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.62%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 07:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.77%EV -4.94%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.73%EV -7.57%E -2.59%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.82%E -3.44%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-01 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.51%E -2.98%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.57%E -2.59%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.60%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-01 21:20
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.51%E -2.98%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.57%E -2.59%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.60%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-01 21:19
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.57%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 21:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -10.08%E -4.11%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-01 14:10
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.24%E -3.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 21:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.24%E -3.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 21:20
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -10.08%E -4.11%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.82%E -3.44%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-01 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -13.75%E -5.85%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-01 20:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -8.24%E -3.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -8.84%E -3.07%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 21:50
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -4.57%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.84%E -3.07%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -4.57%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.84%E -3.07%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 21:50
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -4.57%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.22%EV -9.15%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.22%EV -9.19%E -3.20%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -8.24%E -3.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -11.37%E -4.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-01 21:40
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.04%EV -12.65%E -5.31%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -11.37%E -4.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-01 21:20
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.91%E -4.96%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -12.95%E -4.71%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-01 21:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.77%EV -11.91%E -4.96%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.02%EV -17.70%E -6.81%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.22%EV -12.98%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-01 21:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-04-01 21:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-04-01 21:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-04-01 21:35
Matchbook◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-04-01 21:35
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.11%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.20%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%1.8%2026-04-01 21:50