La escuela de los momios

Londrina v Ceará

Inicio: 2026-04-19 19:00 UTC

Final: Londrina 0–0 Ceará

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Londrina (Local)

Predicción 31.41%3.18momio equitativo
EV -0.441%
Ventaja -0.139%
Kelly -0.203%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.17%31.43%31.38%34.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.862.883.1738.46%34.99%34.72%31.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Ceará (Visitante)

Predicción 38.48%2.60momio equitativo
EV +3.89%
Ventaja +1.44%
Kelly +2.29%
Crecimiento +0.089%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.71%38.44%38.55%40.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.482.412.7045.45%40.36%41.49%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.11%3.32momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.655%
Kelly -0.946%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.78%30.12%30.08%31.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.043.053.2536.36%32.93%32.79%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
betPARX2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -15.20%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV +3.89%E +1.44%K +2.29%G +0.089%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 18:55
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV +1.97%E +0.743%K +1.19%G +0.024%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -8.15%E -2.67%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 18:25
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -16.77%E -6.33%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV +1.20%E +0.456%K +0.736%G +0.009%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -16.77%E -6.33%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV +1.20%E +0.456%K +0.736%G +0.009%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 18:55
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -17.40%E -6.62%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV +0.046%E +0.018%K +0.029%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 18:55
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.71%EV -18.34%E -7.06%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.71%EV +0.046%E +0.018%K +0.029%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -11.16%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 18:55
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.71%EV -18.34%E -7.06%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.71%EV +0.046%E +0.018%K +0.029%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -11.16%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 18:55
LeoVegas2.60I 38.46%NM 34.71%EV -18.34%E -7.06%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.71%EV +0.046%E +0.018%K +0.029%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -11.16%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 18:55
LowVig.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.88%EV -4.57%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -8.15%E -2.67%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 18:35
BetOnline.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.88%EV -4.57%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -8.15%E -2.67%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 18:35
Pinnacle3.17I 31.55%NM 30.41%EV -0.441%E -0.139%K -0.203%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.18%EV -5.34%E -2.17%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.41%EV -4.54%E -1.43%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-19 18:45
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -5.73%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -5.14%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 18:50
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.73%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.14%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 18:35
FanDuel2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -5.73%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 18:34
1xBet3.01I 33.22%NM 31.09%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.83%EV -7.27%E -3.01%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.09%EV -6.34%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 18:55
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -2.13%E -0.655%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 18:35
Unibet (UK)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -7.35%E -2.49%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 18:40
Marathon Bet3.02I 33.11%NM 30.69%EV -5.15%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.69%EV -9.05%E -3.00%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 18:55
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -6.41%E -2.15%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -8.15%E -2.67%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 18:40
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -6.41%E -2.15%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -8.15%E -2.67%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 18:35
SportsBet2.87I 34.84%NM 32.03%EV -9.86%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.31%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 18:35
PointsBet (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 18:35
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.56%EV -8.03%E -3.36%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 18:53
888sport3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -12.67%E -4.37%K -6.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 18:55
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -12.67%E -4.37%K -6.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 18:54
Mr Green (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -12.67%E -4.37%K -6.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 18:55
888sport (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -12.67%E -4.37%K -6.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 18:55
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 18:35
betfred_uk2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 18:35
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.57%E -4.07%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-19 18:35
BetUS3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.56%EV -10.34%E -4.44%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.15%E -2.67%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 18:55
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.50%E -5.00%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -6.65%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 18:39
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.50%E -5.00%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -9.66%E -3.22%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-19 18:35
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -2.64%E -0.852%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -13.42%E -5.97%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -11.16%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-19 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.79%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.00%EV -15.35%E -6.98%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.20%EV -17.19%E -6.25%K -9.82%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-19 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-04-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-04-19 18:55
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-04-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29%1.5%2026-04-19 18:45
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.47%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.08%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45%2.6%2026-04-19 18:50