Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina v Avai

Kickoff: 2026-06-16 00:00 UTC

Final: Londrina 3–2 Avai

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 39.24%2.55fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.25%39.34%39.15%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.312.302.4445.87%43.20%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avai (Visit)

Prediction 30.13%3.32fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.446%
Kelly -0.643%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.25%30.09%30.11%30.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.043.053.2734.72%32.89%32.79%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.27fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.624%
Kelly -0.908%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.07%30.58%30.74%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.033.003.2037.04%33.01%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 39.24%; Avai (Visit): 30.13%; Draw: 30.63%. For Avai (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.27, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.47%EV -4.26%E -1.74%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.46%EV -1.46%E -0.446%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.07%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-15 23:50
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.07%E -1.61%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-15 23:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.57%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-15 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.57%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-15 23:39
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.57%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-15 23:40
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-15 18:20
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.38%EV -4.17%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.36%EV -8.74%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-15 23:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -6.58%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-15 23:39
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -8.74%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-15 23:40
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -8.74%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-15 23:40
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.19%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-15 23:39
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.19%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-15 23:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.19%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-15 23:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.19%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-15 23:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.27%EV -7.39%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.52%EV -5.38%E -1.71%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.21%EV -9.04%E -3.04%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-15 23:50
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.79%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.58%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-15 23:49
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -7.79%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-15 23:50
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.22%EV -7.79%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.54%EV -5.98%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-15 23:39
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:49
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:50
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.09%E -2.65%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.908%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 23:50
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-15 23:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-15 23:49
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-15 23:50
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.61%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-15 23:39
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -10.53%E -4.62%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -11.10%E -3.76%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-15 23:30
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -11.71%E -5.20%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -5.07%E -1.61%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.19%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-15 23:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -11.71%E -5.20%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.60%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-15 23:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -11.71%E -5.20%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -13.21%E -4.59%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -17.31%E -6.41%K -10.18%G +0.000%16.2%2026-06-15 23:49
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -12.50%E -5.60%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -11.10%E -3.76%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-15 23:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -13.67%E -6.22%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -3.57%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-15 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.53%EV -13.67%E -6.22%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.23%EV -11.10%E -3.76%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-15 23:50
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -13.67%E -6.22%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -12.61%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.3%2026-06-15 23:30
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.26%EV -14.46%E -6.63%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -13.21%E -4.59%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-15 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.26%EV -14.46%E -6.63%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -13.21%E -4.59%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-15 23:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.26%EV -14.46%E -6.63%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -13.21%E -4.59%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-15 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-06-15 23:50
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-06-15 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-06-15 23:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-06-15 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-06-15 23:40