The School of Odds
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Londrina v Athletic Club (MG)

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 14:02 UTC

Final: Londrina 2–0 Athletic Club (MG)

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 38.87%2.57fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.36%38.79%38.92%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.382.5044.44%42.29%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 29.96%3.34fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.496%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.64%30.12%29.82%32.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.073.103.3035.09%32.61%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.17%3.21fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.89%31.09%31.26%34.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.932.943.1040.00%34.11%34.01%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 38.87%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 29.96%; Draw: 31.17%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -2.82%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -13.12%E -4.53%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-20 13:58
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.16%EV -4.38%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.37%EV -1.74%E -0.531%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.48%EV -4.62%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-20 13:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -4.76%E -1.94%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -14.62%E -5.13%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-20 13:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.57%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.14%E -1.29%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -8.36%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-20 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.57%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.14%E -1.29%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -8.36%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-20 13:59
BetUS🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.57%EV -5.15%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.14%E -1.29%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -8.36%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-20 13:59
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.47%EV -5.54%E -2.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -7.43%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.27%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-20 13:59
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.63%E -2.83%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-20 13:59
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.63%E -2.83%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-20 13:58
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 13:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 13:59
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 13:59
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.11%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-20 13:59
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.11%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-20 13:59
Bovada🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.83%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.62%EV -6.53%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.54%EV -8.67%E -2.96%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-20 13:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-20 13:59
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-20 13:59
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-20 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-20 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-20 13:59
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.14%E -1.29%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-20 14:00
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-20 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -8.65%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -13.12%E -4.53%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -8.04%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-20 13:59
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -9.82%E -4.23%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.34%EV -11.63%E -3.94%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.08%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-20 13:59
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -1.14%E -0.346%K -0.496%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-20 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -1.14%E -0.346%K -0.496%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.08%EV -10.54%E -3.67%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-20 13:59
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -13.72%E -4.77%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-20 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -11.63%E -3.94%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-20 13:59
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.46%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.12%E -4.53%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -11.16%E -3.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-20 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.45%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.23%EV -13.12%E -4.53%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-20 13:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.45%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.23%EV -13.12%E -4.53%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-20 13:59
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.45%EV -11.37%E -4.99%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.23%EV -13.12%E -4.53%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-20 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -4.14%E -1.29%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-20 13:59
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.13%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-06-20 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -12.54%E -5.57%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -7.13%E -2.30%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -22.07%E -8.83%K -14.71%G +0.000%16.7%2026-06-20 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-06-20 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-06-20 13:59
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.30%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.8%2026-06-20 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.14%2.0%2026-06-20 14:00
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.21%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.91%2.8%2026-06-20 14:00