Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juventude v Fortaleza

Início: 2026-08-15 21:31 UTC

Final: Juventude 0–0 Fortaleza

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juventude (Local)

Previsão 43.66%2.29odd justa
EV -3.95%
Vantagem -1.80%
Kelly -3.29%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.03%43.73%43.58%46.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.112.102.2051.28%47.29%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fortaleza (Visitante)

Previsão 25.10%3.98odd justa
EV -1.12%
Vantagem -0.284%
Kelly -0.380%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.94

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.14%25.02%25.12%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.623.603.9429.85%27.60%27.78%25.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.24%3.20odd justa
EV -3.14%
Vantagem -1.01%
Kelly -1.50%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.28%31.25%31.29%32.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.922.903.1036.36%34.30%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Juventude (Local): 43.66%; Fortaleza (Visitante): 25.10%; Empate: 31.24%. Para Fortaleza (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.98. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.94, com valor esperado de -1.12%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -3.95%E -1.80%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -5.89%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -10.95%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:15
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.95%E -1.80%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -10.95%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 21:15
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.29%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.40%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.31%EV -4.08%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.61%EV -5.70%E -2.64%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -6.89%E -2.31%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.61%EV -5.70%E -2.64%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -6.89%E -2.31%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:24
BetUS🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.61%EV -5.70%E -2.64%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -6.89%E -2.31%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:24
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.04%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 21:19
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.14%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 21:19
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -14.08%E -5.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 21:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -14.08%E -5.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 21:19
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.40%EV -6.57%E -3.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -13.42%E -3.89%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.35%EV -7.44%E -3.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -8.40%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.47%EV -8.77%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 21:20
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.35%EV -7.44%E -3.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -8.40%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.47%EV -8.77%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.26%EV -7.44%E -3.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -8.40%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.62%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 21:19
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.89%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 21:25
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.89%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 21:25
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 21:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 21:20
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:25
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:25
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 21:14
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 21:15
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 21:19
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -14.67%E -4.31%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 21:04
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:15
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.32%EV -8.75%E -4.19%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.30%EV -7.52%E -2.54%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 21:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -9.19%E -4.42%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -14.67%E -4.31%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -10.95%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 21:04
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -9.19%E -4.42%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -14.67%E -4.31%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -10.95%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Bovada🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.78%EV -10.06%E -4.89%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -3.38%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.27%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 21:22
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 21:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -15.93%E -4.75%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-15 21:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -15.93%E -4.75%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-15 21:04
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -12.68%E -6.34%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:24
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -12.68%E -6.34%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.27%EV -14.87%E -7.62%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -2.12%E -0.544%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 21:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.82%-0.1%2026-08-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-08-15 21:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-08-15 21:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-08-15 21:15
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.43%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.26%1.6%2026-08-15 21:15