Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 58.81%1.70fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -5.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.68%58.83%58.64%61.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.571.571.6468.03%63.61%63.69%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 16.36%6.11fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.356%
Kelly +0.424%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.32%16.35%16.53%17.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.485.506.2520.00%18.24%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.84%4.03fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.12%24.82%24.83%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.653.703.9028.99%27.42%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 58.81%; Sport Recife (Visit): 16.36%; Draw: 24.84%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.86%EV -5.91%E -3.69%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.32%EV +2.23%E +0.356%K +0.424%G +0.009% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.81%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.40%EV -6.50%E -4.09%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-28 22:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-28 22:56 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.16%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -5.13%E -0.885%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-28 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.34%EV -13.55%E -9.22%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -5.13%E -0.885%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -3.14%E -0.805%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.28%EV -6.50%E -4.09%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.60%EV -10.09%E -2.79%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 23:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-28 23:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-28 23:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-28 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -5.91%E -3.69%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -4.38%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -7.08%E -4.48%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.03%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -8.85%E -5.71%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -8.85%E -5.71%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -11.79%E -7.86%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-28 22:51 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -11.79%E -7.86%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.99%EV -3.56%E -2.17%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 5.48I 18.25%NM 17.05%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:51 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.27%EV -7.08%E -4.48%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -14.13%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -11.83%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.63%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.23%EV -14.13%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-28 20:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.94%EV -8.85%E -5.71%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -14.13%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-28 23:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -5.91%E -3.69%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -14.95%E -2.87%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -11.83%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV -16.58%E -3.25%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.09%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -16.58%E -3.25%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-28 22:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-28 23:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-28 20:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-28 20:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-28 20:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-28 20:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.68%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-28 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -9.44%E -6.13%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-28 22:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -9.44%E -6.13%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-28 22:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08% | 1.3% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08% | 1.3% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08% | 1.3% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08% | 1.3% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.30% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88% | 2.1% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |