Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio Novorizontino v Sport Recife

Início: 2026-08-28 23:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio Novorizontino 2–1 Sport Recife

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)

Previsão 58.81%1.70odd justa
EV -3.56%
Vantagem -2.17%
Kelly -5.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.64

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
56.68%58.83%58.64%61.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.471.571.571.6468.03%63.61%63.69%60.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sport Recife (Visitante)

Previsão 16.36%6.11odd justa
EV +2.23%
Vantagem +0.356%
Kelly +0.424%
Crescimento +0.009%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.32%16.35%16.53%17.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.005.485.506.2520.00%18.24%18.18%16.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.84%4.03odd justa
EV -3.14%
Vantagem -0.805%
Kelly -1.08%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.12%24.82%24.83%26.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.453.653.703.9028.99%27.42%27.03%25.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 58.81%; Sport Recife (Visitante): 16.36%; Empate: 24.84%. Para Sport Recife (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.11. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.23%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.86%EV -5.91%E -3.69%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.32%EV +2.23%E +0.356%K +0.424%G +0.009%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.81%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-28 23:15
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.40%EV -6.50%E -4.09%K -11.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 23:25
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 22:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 23:25
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 22:56
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.86%E -0.311%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 22:50
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.16%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -5.13%E -0.885%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.34%EV -13.55%E -9.22%K -28.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -5.13%E -0.885%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -3.14%E -0.805%K -1.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 22:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.28%EV -6.50%E -4.09%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.60%EV -10.09%E -2.79%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 23:20
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 23:24
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 23:25
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 23:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 23:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -5.95%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 23:00
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -5.91%E -3.69%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -4.38%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -7.08%E -4.48%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 23:05
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 23:20
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.03%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 23:05
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -8.85%E -5.71%K -16.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -8.85%E -5.71%K -16.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 23:05
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -10.02%E -6.55%K -18.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 23:25
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -11.79%E -7.86%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-28 22:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -11.79%E -7.86%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.04%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-28 23:15
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.99%EV -3.56%E -2.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.05%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 23:20
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:50
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:51
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:50
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.73%E -2.92%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -11.68%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 23:05
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.27%EV -7.08%E -4.48%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -14.13%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -11.83%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 23:05
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.63%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.23%EV -14.13%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 20:25
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.94%EV -8.85%E -5.71%K -16.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -14.13%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 23:19
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -5.91%E -3.69%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -14.95%E -2.87%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -11.83%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 22:50
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV -16.58%E -3.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-28 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.09%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -16.58%E -3.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 22:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-28 23:05
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 20:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 20:25
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 20:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -7.67%E -4.89%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 20:30
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.68%EV -8.26%E -5.29%K -14.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-28 22:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -9.44%E -6.13%K -17.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-28 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -9.44%E -6.13%K -17.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -18.22%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -14.32%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-28 22:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-08-28 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-08-28 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-08-28 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-08-28 23:25
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%2.1%2026-08-28 23:25