Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Cuiabá
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 57.77%1.73fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.06%57.61%57.78%59.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.611.6865.36%62.00%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cuiabá (Visit)
Prediction 16.25%6.15fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.250%
Kelly +0.298%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.89%16.35%16.23%18.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.495.506.2521.05%18.21%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.98%3.85fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.683%
Kelly -0.931%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.21%26.04%26.00%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.493.503.7530.77%28.67%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 57.77%; Cuiabá (Visit): 16.25%; Draw: 25.98%. For Cuiabá (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV +1.56%E +0.250%K +0.298%G +0.005% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-13 20:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.86%EV -5.84%E -3.58%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 6.22I 16.08%NM 15.42%EV +1.08%E +0.173%K +0.206%G +0.002% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.72%EV -3.08%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-13 21:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -2.50%E -0.416%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-13 20:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -11.62%E -7.59%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -2.50%E -0.416%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 20:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -11.62%E -7.59%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -2.50%E -0.416%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.36%EV -5.84%E -3.58%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.93I 16.86%NM 15.77%EV -3.64%E -0.613%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.87%EV -9.58%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 21:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 21:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 21:01 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.92%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 20:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 20:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.05%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.20%EV -8.15%E -5.13%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-13 20:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.14%EV -8.73%E -5.53%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 21:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.63%EV -8.73%E -5.53%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.98%EV -7.37%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.63%EV -8.73%E -5.53%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.98%EV -7.37%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.74%EV -8.15%E -5.13%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -9.00%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 20:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 20:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 20:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 20:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 20:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.54%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.45%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -12.95%E -3.87%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 21:06 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-13 20:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-13 21:26 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-13 20:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.46%E -6.75%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-13 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-13 20:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -3.53%E -2.11%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -18.75%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.75%EV -5.84%E -3.58%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.06%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.66%EV -22.81%E -4.80%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -15.55%E -4.79%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-12 14:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.80% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.94% | 0.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.14% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.26% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.60% | 0.2% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.94% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84% | 0.5% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.84% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |