Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio Novorizontino v Cuiabá

Início: 2026-09-13 21:30 UTC

Final: Grêmio Novorizontino 1–1 Cuiabá

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)

Previsão 57.77%1.73odd justa
EV -2.95%
Vantagem -1.76%
Kelly -4.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.68

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.06%57.61%57.78%59.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.531.611.611.6865.36%62.00%62.11%59.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cuiabá (Visitante)

Previsão 16.25%6.15odd justa
EV +1.56%
Vantagem +0.250%
Kelly +0.298%
Crescimento +0.005%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.89%16.35%16.23%18.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.755.495.506.2521.05%18.21%18.18%16.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.98%3.85odd justa
EV -2.56%
Vantagem -0.683%
Kelly -0.931%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.21%26.04%26.00%27.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.493.503.7530.77%28.67%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 57.77%; Cuiabá (Visitante): 16.25%; Empate: 25.98%. Para Cuiabá (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.15. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.56%.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV +1.56%E +0.250%K +0.298%G +0.005%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 20:50
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.86%EV -5.84%E -3.58%K -9.27%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.42%EV +1.08%E +0.173%K +0.206%G +0.002%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.72%EV -3.08%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 21:10
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -2.50%E -0.416%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 20:50
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -11.62%E -7.59%K -21.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -2.50%E -0.416%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 20:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -11.62%E -7.59%K -21.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -2.50%E -0.416%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 21:15
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.36%EV -5.84%E -3.58%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.77%EV -3.64%E -0.613%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.87%EV -9.58%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 21:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 21:00
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 21:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.92%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -5.75%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 20:40
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 20:45
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 20:54
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.05%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 20:45
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.20%EV -8.15%E -5.13%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 20:55
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.14%EV -8.73%E -5.53%K -15.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -6.56%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 21:05
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.63%EV -8.73%E -5.53%K -15.05%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.98%EV -7.37%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 20:45
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.63%EV -8.73%E -5.53%K -15.05%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.98%EV -7.37%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 20:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.74%EV -8.15%E -5.13%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -9.00%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 20:55
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 20:40
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 20:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 20:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 20:40
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.54%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.45%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -12.95%E -3.87%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 21:06
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 20:55
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 21:26
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.31%E -5.93%K -16.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 20:44
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.46%E -6.75%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -10.62%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 21:25
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -7.00%E -4.35%K -11.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 20:45
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 20:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 20:45
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -14.69%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 20:45
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -15.50%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 21:15
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -3.53%E -2.11%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -18.75%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.65%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 21:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 21:15
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 21:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.75%EV -5.84%E -3.58%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -20.37%E -4.16%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.25%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 21:15
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.06%EV -5.26%E -3.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.66%EV -22.81%E -4.80%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -15.55%E -4.79%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 14:18
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.80%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.27%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.94%0.1%2026-09-13 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 60.14%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.60%0.2%2026-09-13 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.94%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84%0.5%2026-09-13 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-09-13 21:25
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.84%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%1.3%2026-09-13 21:20