Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 44.90%2.23fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%45.09%44.79%47.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.052.1552.63%48.68%48.66%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV +0.057%
Edge +0.014%
Kelly +0.019%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.53%24.87%25.05%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.693.704.0131.25%27.12%27.03%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.14%3.32fair odd
EV -0.523%
Edge -0.158%
Kelly -0.227%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%30.04%30.15%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.093.103.3035.71%32.39%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 44.90%; Ceará (Visit): 24.95%; Draw: 30.14%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.008. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.010, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.057%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.38%EV -4.80%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.99%EV +0.057%E +0.014%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.64%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -14.68%E -7.73%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -0.193%E -0.048%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.16%EV -3.91%E -1.83%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -2.03%E -0.625%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.00%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.00%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.00%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.13%EV -4.19%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.68%EV -8.96%E -2.97%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.10%EV -3.46%E -1.61%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -0.523%E -0.158%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.10%EV -3.46%E -1.61%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -0.523%E -0.158%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.70%E -2.72%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.11%EV -8.40%E -4.12%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 18:57 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -12.44%E -6.38%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.80%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -2.03%E -0.625%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.70%E -2.72%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.74%EV -6.15%E -2.94%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.00%EV -6.68%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -6.85%E -2.22%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-23 18:51 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -2.03%E -0.625%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.95%EV -8.40%E -4.12%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.94%EV -11.99%E -6.12%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -9.29%E -4.60%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.42%E -3.22%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 18:58 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-23 18:58 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.16%E -4.46%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -20.15%E -6.30%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -15.60%E -5.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78% | 1.5% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78% | 1.5% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78% | 1.5% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.42% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66% | 1.9% | 2026-05-23 18:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34% | 2.9% | 2026-05-23 19:00 |