A Escola das Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino v Ceará

Início: 2026-05-23 19:02 UTC

Final: Grêmio Novorizontino 2–1 Ceará

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)

Previsão 44.90%2.23odd justa
EV -3.46%
Vantagem -1.61%
Kelly -3.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.75%45.09%44.79%47.43%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.902.052.052.1552.63%48.68%48.66%46.51%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Ceará (Visitante)

Previsão 24.95%4.01odd justa
EV +0.057%
Vantagem +0.014%
Kelly +0.019%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.01

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.53%24.87%25.05%26.72%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.203.693.704.0131.25%27.12%27.03%24.94%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 30.14%3.32odd justa
EV -0.523%
Vantagem -0.158%
Kelly -0.227%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.67%30.04%30.15%31.47%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.803.093.103.3035.71%32.39%32.26%30.30%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle2.12I 47.17%NM 45.38%EV -4.80%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.99%EV +0.057%E +0.014%K +0.019%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.64%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-23 18:59
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -14.68%E -7.73%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -0.193%E -0.048%K -0.064%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 19:00
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 45.16%EV -3.91%E -1.83%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -2.03%E -0.625%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 19:00
LowVig.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 45.00%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 18:59
BetOnline.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 45.00%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 18:59
BetUS2.08I 48.08%NM 45.00%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.94%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 18:59
Marathon Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.13%EV -4.19%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.68%EV -8.96%E -2.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 18:59
Casumo2.15I 46.51%NM 45.10%EV -3.46%E -1.61%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -0.523%E -0.158%K -0.227%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 19:00
ATG (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 45.10%EV -3.46%E -1.61%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -0.523%E -0.158%K -0.227%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 19:00
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.70%E -2.72%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 18:59
Bovada2.04I 49.02%NM 45.11%EV -8.40%E -4.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:57
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -12.44%E -6.38%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 18:59
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 18:59
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 18:59
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 18:59
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 18:59
Grosvenor2.06I 48.54%NM 45.80%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -2.03%E -0.625%K -0.902%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 19:00
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.70%E -2.72%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 19:00
1xBet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.74%EV -6.15%E -2.94%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.00%EV -6.68%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -6.85%E -2.22%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 18:59
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 19:00
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 18:59
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 18:59
BetRivers2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -7.68%E -2.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 18:51
LeoVegas2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:00
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:59
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:59
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:59
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%EV -8.93%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:59
Coolbet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:59
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -2.03%E -0.625%K -0.902%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:59
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 44.95%EV -8.40%E -4.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:59
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.94%EV -11.99%E -6.12%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-23 19:00
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -9.29%E -4.60%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.42%E -3.22%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-23 19:00
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:59
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 18:59
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 18:58
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-23 19:00
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-23 18:59
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 18:58
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.16%E -4.46%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 18:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -10.19%E -5.10%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -20.15%E -6.30%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -15.60%E -5.57%K -8.66%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-23 19:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%1.5%2026-05-23 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%1.5%2026-05-23 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%1.5%2026-05-23 19:00
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 45.42%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-05-23 18:59
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%2.9%2026-05-23 19:00