The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Goiás v São Bernardo

2026-08-28 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 49.22%2.03fair odd
EV -7.47%
Edge -3.97%
Kelly -8.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.10%49.22%49.22%49.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.851.881.8856.18%54.17%53.19%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

São Bernardo (Visit)

Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.28%22.76%22.76%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.074.204.2025.97%24.57%23.81%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.02%3.57fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%28.02%28.02%28.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.353.3532.26%30.66%29.85%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Goiás (Local): 49.22%; São Bernardo (Visit): 22.76%; Draw: 28.02%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.20, with an expected value of -4.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:19
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:19
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.39%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 23:20
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 23:04
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.27%EV -10.42%E -5.73%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -10.08%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.35%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 23:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.19%EV -10.91%E -6.03%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.54%EV -10.08%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -11.75%E -3.73%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-21 23:19
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.19%EV -11.41%E -6.34%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.70%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%EV -11.75%E -3.73%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-21 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.10%EV -12.39%E -6.96%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.70%EV -12.36%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -13.15%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-21 23:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.10%EV -12.39%E -6.96%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.70%EV -12.36%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -13.15%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-21 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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