Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cuiabá v Fortaleza

Início: 2026-08-09 21:00 UTC

Final: Cuiabá 1–1 Fortaleza

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cuiabá (Local)

Previsão 34.49%2.90odd justa
EV -1.35%
Vantagem -0.472%
Kelly -0.725%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.86

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.01%34.53%34.59%36.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.432.652.622.8641.15%37.73%38.17%34.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fortaleza (Visitante)

Previsão 32.56%3.07odd justa
EV +0.942%
Vantagem +0.304%
Kelly +0.449%
Crescimento +0.004%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.07%32.50%32.39%34.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.622.882.883.1038.17%34.72%34.72%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 32.94%3.04odd justa
EV -4.46%
Vantagem -1.54%
Kelly -2.35%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.87%32.98%33.02%34.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.602.772.802.9038.46%36.14%35.71%34.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cuiabá (Local): 34.49%; Fortaleza (Visitante): 32.56%; Empate: 32.94%. Para Fortaleza (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.07. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.942%.

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:25
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:25
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:24
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV +0.942%E +0.304%K +0.449%G +0.004%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 20:25
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -2.31%E -0.771%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 20:30
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -13.77%E -5.51%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -2.31%E -0.771%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -11.05%E -4.09%K -6.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 20:25
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.50%EV -3.76%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.30%EV -2.97%E -0.995%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.19%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 20:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.02%EV -14.46%E -5.83%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -3.94%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.71%EV -12.70%E -4.79%K -7.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 20:25
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.02%EV -14.46%E -5.83%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -3.94%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.71%EV -12.70%E -4.79%K -7.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 20:25
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.20%EV -15.49%E -6.32%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -3.94%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -13.36%E -5.08%K -8.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 20:24
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:39
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:39
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.87%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:45
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -6.11%E -2.14%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 20:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.07%EV -16.18%E -6.66%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.22%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.71%EV -14.34%E -5.52%K -8.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-09 20:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.07%EV -16.18%E -6.66%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.22%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.71%EV -14.34%E -5.52%K -8.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-09 20:24
BetUS🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.01%EV -1.35%E -0.472%K -0.725%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.78%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.21%EV -9.07%E -3.29%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 20:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.01%EV -1.35%E -0.472%K -0.725%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.78%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.21%EV -9.07%E -3.29%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 20:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.01%EV -1.35%E -0.472%K -0.725%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.78%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.21%EV -9.07%E -3.29%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 20:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.21%EV -6.52%E -2.41%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.19%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.59%EV -9.07%E -3.29%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 20:50
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.87%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 20:53
1xBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -4.11%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.71%EV -6.87%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -8.41%E -3.03%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -10.32%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.20%E -2.53%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 20:30
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.87%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:55
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:45
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -6.87%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -13.36%E -5.08%K -8.19%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 20:45
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -6.87%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -8.83%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -13.68%E -5.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 20:40
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.49%EV -4.11%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.49%EV -9.48%E -3.41%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.02%EV -7.10%E -2.52%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 20:35
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.49%EV -4.11%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.49%EV -9.48%E -3.41%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.02%EV -7.10%E -2.52%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 20:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 20:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 20:35
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 20:25
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.42%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 20:50
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.42%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 20:50
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -13.77%E -5.51%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 20:24
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -6.87%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -12.08%E -4.48%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 20:29
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -12.08%E -4.48%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 20:45
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -9.63%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -14.69%E -5.61%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -7.75%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 20:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.09%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.84%0.5%2026-08-09 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%0.8%2026-08-09 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%0.8%2026-08-09 20:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.15%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%1.0%2026-08-09 20:55
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.22%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%1.5%2026-08-09 20:50