The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Criciuma v Fortaleza

2026-08-23 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma (Local)

Prediction 49.00%2.04fair odd
EV -7.87%
Edge -4.19%
Kelly -8.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.92%49.00%49.00%49.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.851.881.8855.87%54.05%53.19%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortaleza (Visit)

Prediction 22.66%4.41fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.19%22.66%22.66%22.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.084.204.2025.64%24.51%23.81%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -6.51%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%28.33%28.33%28.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.303.3032.26%31.03%30.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Criciuma (Local): 49.00%; Fortaleza (Visit): 22.66%; Draw: 28.33%. For Fortaleza (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.20, with an expected value of -4.81%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:09
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:09
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.87%E -4.19%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.81%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 22:09
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -9.34%E -5.05%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -9.34%E -2.34%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.34%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 22:09
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.92%EV -10.32%E -5.64%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.66%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -10.76%E -3.42%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 22:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.05%EV -10.81%E -5.94%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.60%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -10.76%E -3.42%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-16 22:09
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.97%EV -11.30%E -6.24%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.44%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -12.17%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-16 22:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.11%EV -12.28%E -6.86%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -11.61%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -12.17%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-16 22:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.11%EV -12.28%E -6.86%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -11.61%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -12.17%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-16 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.