Language:English
Criciuma v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Criciuma (Local)
Prediction 47.78%2.09fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.67%47.89%47.74%50.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.931.932.0056.50%51.69%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 22.16%4.51fair odd
EV -0.291%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.083%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.02%22.04%22.17%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.144.104.5025.64%24.13%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.06%3.33fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.79%30.07%30.09%31.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.44%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Criciuma (Local): 47.78%; Fortaleza (Visit): 22.16%; Draw: 30.06%. For Fortaleza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -0.291%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:38 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -4.43%E -2.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 21:23 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.33%EV -4.91%E -2.47%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.42%EV -0.512%E -0.114%K -0.147%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.25%EV -4.41%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-23 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.53%EV -5.87%E -2.98%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -4.72%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.53%EV -5.87%E -2.98%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -4.72%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 21:23 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -5.31%E -1.69%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 09:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.78%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -4.72%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.55%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 14:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.13%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-23 20:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -7.30%E -3.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.11%EV -7.42%E -2.41%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.50%EV -7.78%E -4.03%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 21.87%EV -5.17%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.62%EV -5.01%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 21:23 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -7.78%E -4.03%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -3.81%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 09:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.68%EV -7.78%E -4.03%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.30%EV -7.78%E -4.03%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.56%EV -7.78%E -4.03%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -14.33%E -5.03%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-23 20:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -8.26%E -4.30%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -8.26%E -4.30%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -8.26%E -4.30%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.43%EV -8.26%E -4.30%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.28%EV -14.33%E -5.03%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -0.291%E -0.065%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 20:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -0.291%E -0.065%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 20:18 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-23 21:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 21:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 21:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.55%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.59%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-23 21:23 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.55%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.59%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-23 21:23 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.55%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.59%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.55%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.59%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -12.83%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-23 21:23 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -8.73%E -4.57%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -15.83%E -5.65%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 20:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -9.21%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-23 21:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.44%EV -9.69%E -5.13%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.22%EV -12.48%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -15.83%E -5.65%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.44%EV -9.69%E -5.13%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.22%EV -12.48%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -15.83%E -5.65%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -10.65%E -5.69%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -3.81%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 19:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -11.60%E -6.27%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -4.06%E -0.937%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-23 20:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -11.60%E -6.27%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -4.06%E -0.937%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-23 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -12.56%E -6.86%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-23 13:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.91%EV -15.42%E -8.71%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -0.291%E -0.065%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.28% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.75% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.96% | 2.5% | 2026-08-23 21:24 |