Language:English
Ceará v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 34.55%2.89fair odd
EV +0.199%
Edge +0.068%
Kelly +0.105%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.29%34.42%34.56%35.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.692.9040.00%37.13%37.17%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 36.18%2.76fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.60%36.35%36.23%39.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.502.502.6442.55%39.96%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.32%29.23%29.22%29.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.123.3033.33%31.82%32.05%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 34.55%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 36.18%; Draw: 29.27%. For Ceará (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.199%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV +0.199%E +0.068%K +0.105%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-16 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.25%EV -2.91%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.59%EV -4.86%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-18 14:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 13:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -14.99%E -6.38%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-18 14:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -4.98%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.86%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 11:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.98%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -12.09%E -4.98%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-18 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -6.02%E -2.21%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -4.49%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-18 13:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -6.02%E -2.21%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -4.49%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-18 13:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.86%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-18 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 09:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-18 13:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.49%EV -8.47%E -3.35%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-18 14:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-18 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-18 13:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -8.11%E -3.19%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.51%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -8.11%E -3.19%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.51%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 10:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.86%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-18 09:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-18 09:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 10:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 11:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 09:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.34%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.13%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-18 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.63%EV -14.99%E -6.38%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-18 09:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-18 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-18 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-18 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-18 11:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 14:13 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.17%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-18 09:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.17%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-18 09:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.17%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-18 13:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -13.62%E -5.45%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -13.18%E -5.49%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-18 13:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.05% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.92% | 1.3% | 2026-09-18 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.05% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.92% | 1.3% | 2026-09-18 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.05% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.92% | 1.3% | 2026-09-18 14:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91% | 1.3% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91% | 1.3% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |