Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará v Grêmio Novorizontino

2026-09-18 23:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

30%

41%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará (Local)

Prediction 29.81%3.35fair odd

EV -6.10%

Edge -1.94%

Kelly -2.84%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.57%29.81%29.81%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.953.083.153.1533.90%32.46%31.75%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)

Prediction 41.33%2.42fair odd

EV -7.84%

Edge -3.52%

Kelly -6.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.33%41.33%41.33%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.142.202.232.2346.73%45.49%44.84%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.86%3.46fair odd

EV -6.19%

Edge -1.91%

Kelly -2.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.58%28.86%28.86%28.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.183.253.2532.26%31.40%30.77%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ceará (Local): 29.81%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 41.33%; Draw: 28.86%. For Ceará (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.15, with an expected value of -6.10%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:21
Unibet (SE)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:21
betPARX🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.10%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -7.84%E -3.52%K -6.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.19%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -9.08%E -2.98%K -4.43%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.08%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.08%E -2.88%K -4.22%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.57%E -3.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -10.73%E -4.97%K -9.25%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%	11.9%	2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.57%E -3.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -10.73%E -4.97%K -9.25%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%	11.9%	2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.57%E -3.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -10.73%E -4.97%K -9.25%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%	11.9%	2026-09-12 14:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.57%E -3.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.15%E -5.18%K -9.69%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -12.06%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 41.40%EV -11.56%E -5.40%K -10.14%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.58%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%	12.9%	2026-09-12 14:18

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.