L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
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Ceará v Grêmio Novorizontino

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-18 23:30 UTC

Score final : Ceará 2–1 Grêmio Novorizontino

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

43 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ceará (Local)

Prévision 34.55%2.89cote équitable
EV +0.199%
Avantage +0.068%
Kelly +0.105%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.29%34.42%34.56%35.12%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.502.692.692.9040.00%37.13%37.17%34.48%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.18%2.76cote équitable
EV -4.49%
Avantage -1.70%
Kelly -2.74%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.64

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.60%36.35%36.23%39.34%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.352.502.502.6442.55%39.96%40.00%37.88%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 29.27%3.42cote équitable
EV -3.40%
Avantage -1.03%
Kelly -1.48%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.32%29.23%29.22%29.90%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.003.143.123.3033.33%31.82%32.05%30.30%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Ceará (Local) : 34.55% ; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visiteur) : 36.18% ; Match nul : 29.27%. Pour Ceará (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 2.89. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 2.90, soit une espérance positive de +0.199%.

Cotes des opérateurs (43 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV +0.199%E +0.068%K +0.105%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 13:25
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.25%EV -2.91%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.59%EV -4.86%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 14:10
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:00
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 13:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:00
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -10.28%E -4.15%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -14.99%E -6.38%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 14:49
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -4.98%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.86%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 11:54
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.98%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -12.09%E -4.98%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -6.02%E -2.21%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -4.49%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 13:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -6.02%E -2.21%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -4.49%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 13:20
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.86%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 14:10
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 09:54
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 13:19
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.49%EV -8.47%E -3.35%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 14:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 13:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 13:59
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -8.11%E -3.19%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.51%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -8.11%E -3.19%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.51%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.94%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 10:30
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.86%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 09:54
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 09:54
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 10:30
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 10:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.75%E -3.04%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.34%EV -13.90%E -5.84%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.13%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 13:59
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.63%EV -14.99%E -6.38%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-18 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 09:54
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 11:55
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 11:54
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 14:13
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.48%E -3.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 14:15
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.17%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.33%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 09:54
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.17%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 09:54
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.17%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.56%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 13:00
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -13.62%E -5.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -13.18%E -5.49%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -9.26%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-18 13:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.05%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.92%1.3%2026-09-18 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.05%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.92%1.3%2026-09-18 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.05%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.92%1.3%2026-09-18 14:45
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-09-18 15:30
Matchbook◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-09-18 15:30