The School of Odds

Avai v América Mineiro

2026-07-21 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Avai (Local)

Prediction 43.00%2.33fair odd
EV -7.54%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -6.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.98%43.00%43.00%43.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.042.112.152.1549%47%47%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

América Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 28.05%3.56fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.86%28.05%28.05%28.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.353.3532%31%30%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.94%3.46fair odd
EV -5.94%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.60%28.94%28.94%28.94%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.183.253.2533%31%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:15
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:15
Casumo2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
betPARX2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
ATG (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Svenska Spel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.02%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.94%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:15
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -8.83%E -4.17%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.83%E -2.72%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.83%E -2.80%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-14 23:19
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -10.55%E -5.07%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.23%E -3.20%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.28%E -3.32%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-14 23:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 43.01%EV -10.98%E -5.30%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -11.64%E -3.69%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.72%EV -10.28%E -3.32%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-14 23:19
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -11.84%E -5.78%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -11.64%E -3.69%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -10.28%E -3.32%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-14 23:19
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -12.27%E -6.01%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -13.04%E -4.21%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -11.72%E -3.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-14 23:19
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -12.27%E -6.01%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -13.04%E -4.21%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -11.72%E -3.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.