Language:English
Avai v América Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avai (Local)
Prediction 41.12%2.43fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.86%41.16%41.15%44.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.212.3448.78%45.02%45.25%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 28.09%3.56fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.320%
Kelly -0.448%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%28.08%28.02%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.253.5233.33%30.55%30.77%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.79%3.25fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.58%30.76%30.82%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.983.1035.71%33.59%33.61%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avai (Local): 41.12%; América Mineiro (Visit): 28.09%; Draw: 30.79%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.52, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.16%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.36%EV -1.13%E -0.320%K -0.448%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.48%EV -5.78%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-21 22:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.64%EV -4.60%E -1.98%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.64%EV -8.25%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.64%EV -4.60%E -1.98%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.64%EV -8.25%E -2.77%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| DraftKings | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| SportsBet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -3.09%E -0.897%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| FanDuel | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| 888sport | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:05 |
| theScore Bet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.42%E -2.36%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -15.73%E -5.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.02%EV -7.07%E -3.13%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.76%EV -6.18%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.22%EV -8.55%E -2.88%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-21 22:29 |
| Coolbet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 21:20 |
| Betway | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 21:35 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -6.09%E -2.00%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Betsson | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -6.09%E -2.00%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-21 20:15 |
| NordicBet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -6.09%E -2.00%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-21 20:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-21 20:15 |
| Bovada | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.99%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.48%EV -9.78%E -3.34%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 22:09 |
| BetUS | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.99%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.48%EV -9.78%E -3.34%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| William Hill | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| PlayUp | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -11.52%E -3.66%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-21 22:10 |
| betano_uk | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 22:20 |
| Bet Victor | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -7.48%E -3.32%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 22:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.27%EV -8.71%E -3.92%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-21 20:15 |
| Unibet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Casumo | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| betPARX | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.55%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-21 20:00 |
| BetMGM | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -9.17%E -3.11%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-21 21:40 |
| betfred_uk | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-21 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 21:35 |
| Neds | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 21:35 |
| Coral | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-21 21:40 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -13.79%E -4.92%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.53%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -13.79%E -4.92%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| BetRivers | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -11.59%E -5.39%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -6.09%E -2.00%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-21 22:10 |
| BoyleSports | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.59%E -5.39%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.21%EV -12.82%E -6.05%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-21 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.82%E -6.05%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.18%EV -9.17%E -3.11%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| TABtouch | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -13.65%E -6.50%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -9.17%E -3.11%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-07-21 21:45 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.06%EV -14.47%E -6.96%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -11.52%E -3.66%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.17%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.06%EV -14.47%E -6.96%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -11.52%E -3.66%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.17%EV -10.71%E -3.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -15.70%E -7.66%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-21 21:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.87% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.07% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06% | 0.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05% | 0.6% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Matchbook | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |
| Smarkets | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.33% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.95% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73% | 1.7% | 2026-07-21 22:30 |