The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atletico Goianiense v Vila Nova

2026-08-15 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Goianiense (Local)

Prediction 43.97%2.27fair odd
EV -7.66%
Edge -3.65%
Kelly -6.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.95%43.97%43.97%44.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.062.102.1050.51%48.49%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vila Nova (Visit)

Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV -6.22%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.28%27.58%27.58%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.403.4031.25%30.06%29.41%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV -6.13%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.23%28.44%28.44%28.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.213.303.3032.79%31.14%30.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 43.97%; Vila Nova (Visit): 27.58%; Draw: 28.44%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -6.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:54
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:54
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.22%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:54
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.97%EV -8.98%E -4.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -8.98%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -8.98%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 19:55
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.95%EV -10.30%E -5.05%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.46%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 19:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -11.18%E -5.53%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 19:55
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -11.18%E -5.53%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -10.36%E -3.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.09%EV -12.93%E -6.53%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.28%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -13.24%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-08 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.09%EV -12.93%E -6.53%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.28%EV -11.74%E -3.67%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -13.24%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-08 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.