Language:English
Atletico Goianiense v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense (Local)
Prediction 47.42%2.11fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.07%47.40%47.52%49.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.952.0354.64%51.54%51.28%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 23.36%4.28fair odd
EV +0.685%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.207%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.51%23.30%23.23%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.873.804.3128.17%25.83%26.32%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.22%3.42fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.364%
Kelly -0.517%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%29.30%29.25%30.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.103.3833.33%31.93%32.26%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 47.42%; Vila Nova (Visit): 23.36%; Draw: 29.22%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.31, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.685%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.36%EV -3.74%E -1.84%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.31%EV +0.685%E +0.159%K +0.207%G +0.001% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -7.37%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.03%EV -5.64%E -2.83%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -1.89%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.16%EV -6.11%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -1.89%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.61%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.16%EV -6.11%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -1.89%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.61%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.16%EV -6.11%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -1.89%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.61%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -1.89%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 18:38 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -13.23%E -7.23%K -15.93%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -1.89%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-15 18:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.22%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.92%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -4.22%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -8.48%E -4.40%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-12 19:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -8.96%E -4.67%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 07:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.63%EV -8.96%E -4.67%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 12:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.63%EV -8.96%E -4.67%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 12:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-15 18:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.89%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.89%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.22%EV -8.01%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.11%EV -9.36%E -2.41%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.67%EV -1.23%E -0.364%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.06%E -2.61%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.37%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -10.06%E -2.61%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.14%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.15%EV -6.11%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -6.59%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -6.59%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -6.59%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -6.59%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -6.59%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -6.59%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-15 18:43 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-15 18:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.33%EV -9.91%E -5.21%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-15 18:57 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -11.33%E -6.06%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.23%E -2.96%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-10 13:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -13.57%E -3.67%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.57%E -3.67%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.57%E -3.67%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.57%E -3.67%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.57%E -3.67%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 09:43 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.44%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -14.73%E -4.04%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -8.96%E -4.67%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -14.73%E -4.04%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.54%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.90%E -4.42%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -15.90%E -4.42%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.63%EV -10.38%E -5.49%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -15.90%E -4.42%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-15 18:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.60%EV -10.85%E -5.77%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.68%EV -17.07%E -4.81%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.60%EV -10.85%E -5.77%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.68%EV -17.07%E -4.81%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -10.87%E -3.57%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-15 18:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.89% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.89% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.89% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.35% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.17% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.48% | 2.5% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |