Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 27.90%3.58fair odd
EV -0.963%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.377%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.34%27.87%27.84%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.263.303.5533.90%30.71%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 41.17%2.43fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.84%41.24%41.18%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3247.62%44.77%44.44%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.93%3.23fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.69%30.89%30.97%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.982.953.1034.84%33.61%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 27.90%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 41.17%; Draw: 30.93%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.963%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -0.963%E -0.271%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.29%EV -11.07%E -5.12%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.36%EV -4.74%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.21%EV -1.24%E -0.351%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.52%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.27%EV -4.74%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-24 22:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.68%EV -6.95%E -3.08%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-24 22:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-24 22:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.31%EV -6.13%E -2.69%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.31%EV -6.13%E -2.69%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -5.66%E -1.86%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-24 21:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.60%E -3.87%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-24 22:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -11.48%E -5.34%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-24 22:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -11.48%E -5.34%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -13.54%E -6.45%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-24 20:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-24 21:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -8.19%E -3.67%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-24 21:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 21:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 21:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 21:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 21:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -8.60%E -3.87%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 21:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -8.60%E -3.87%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 21:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.33%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-24 21:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.23%E -3.91%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-24 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.23%E -3.91%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-24 21:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-24 15:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -14.91%E -4.89%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -8.19%E -3.67%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -5.66%E -1.86%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -14.91%E -4.89%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.74%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -16.31%E -5.44%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -16.31%E -5.44%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.56%EV -10.24%E -4.70%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -17.70%E -6.00%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -10.66%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -17.70%E -6.00%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -10.66%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-08-24 22:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-08-24 22:19 |