Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletic Club (MG) v Grêmio Novorizontino

Início: 2026-08-24 22:30 UTC

Final: Athletic Club (MG) 1–4 Grêmio Novorizontino

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Previsão 27.90%3.58odd justa
EV -0.963%
Vantagem -0.271%
Kelly -0.377%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.34%27.87%27.84%29.69%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.263.303.5533.90%30.71%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante)

Previsão 41.17%2.43odd justa
EV -4.48%
Vantagem -1.93%
Kelly -3.39%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.84%41.24%41.18%43.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.232.252.3247.62%44.77%44.44%43.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.93%3.23odd justa
EV -4.12%
Vantagem -1.33%
Kelly -1.96%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.69%30.89%30.97%31.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.872.982.953.1034.84%33.61%33.90%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 27.90%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante): 41.17%; Empate: 30.93%. Para Athletic Club (MG) (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.58. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.55, com valor esperado de -0.963%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -0.963%E -0.271%K -0.377%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.29%EV -11.07%E -5.12%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.36%EV -4.74%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-24 22:24
Pinnacle🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.21%EV -1.24%E -0.351%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.52%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.27%EV -4.74%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-24 22:15
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.68%EV -6.95%E -3.08%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 22:24
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-24 22:14
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-24 22:14
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.31%EV -6.13%E -2.69%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 22:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.31%EV -6.13%E -2.69%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 22:19
DraftKings🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -5.66%E -1.86%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-24 21:44
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.60%E -3.87%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-24 22:18
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -11.48%E -5.34%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-24 22:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -11.48%E -5.34%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-24 22:19
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -13.54%E -6.45%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-24 20:54
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-24 22:19
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-24 22:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-24 21:44
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-24 22:19
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -8.19%E -3.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 21:45
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-24 22:19
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 21:39
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 21:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 21:39
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 21:39
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -8.60%E -3.87%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 21:44
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -8.60%E -3.87%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 21:44
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-24 22:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.33%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-24 22:19
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-24 21:29
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-24 22:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-24 22:24
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.92%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-24 22:24
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -5.30%E -2.31%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 22:24
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.23%E -3.91%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-24 21:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.23%E -3.91%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-24 21:25
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-24 15:05
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -14.91%E -4.89%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -8.19%E -3.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -5.66%E -1.86%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 22:19
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -14.91%E -4.89%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.74%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%EV -7.21%E -2.40%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-24 22:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -16.31%E -5.44%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-24 22:24
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -16.31%E -5.44%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.56%EV -10.24%E -4.70%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -8.76%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-24 22:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -17.70%E -6.00%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -10.66%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-24 22:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61%EV -17.70%E -6.00%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.26%EV -10.66%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-24 22:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-24 22:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-24 22:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-24 22:24
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-08-24 22:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-08-24 22:19