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Athletic Club (MG) v Criciuma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 30.31%3.30fair odd
EV +3.65%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.055%
assuming max odds 3.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%30.13%30.40%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.4236.36%33.22%33.33%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Criciuma (Visit)
Prediction 37.26%2.68fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.22%37.45%37.20%40.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.472.502.5544.44%40.42%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.43%3.08fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.81%32.42%32.40%33.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.812.9537.04%35.29%35.59%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 30.31%; Criciuma (Visit): 37.26%; Draw: 32.43%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.30%EV +3.65%E +1.07%K +1.51%G +0.055% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.74%EV -10.19%E -4.23%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.86%EV +1.22%E +0.366%K +0.522%G +0.006% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.35%EV -6.28%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV +0.009%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -16.16%E -7.18%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-09 13:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.02%E -0.944%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.02%E -0.944%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.02%E -0.944%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.46%EV -10.49%E -3.80%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 13:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 13:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -6.60%E -2.29%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 13:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.32%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -8.55%E -3.03%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 13:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.32%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -8.55%E -3.03%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 13:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -5.95%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 13:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.44%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.44%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 13:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -7.57%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.15%EV -7.96%E -3.22%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.95%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 11:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.12%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-05 10:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.12%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-05 10:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.12%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 11:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.58%E -2.66%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.11%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.11%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -7.58%E -2.66%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 13:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.11%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -14.29%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -6.60%E -2.29%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -12.72%E -4.42%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 13:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.55%EV -9.45%E -3.89%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.55%EV -9.45%E -3.89%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -16.66%E -6.06%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -16.66%E -6.06%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.88% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.06% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.06% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.06% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.78% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.93% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.29% | 2.2% | 2026-08-09 13:55 |
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