Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletic Club (MG) v Criciuma

Início: 2026-08-09 14:00 UTC

Final: Athletic Club (MG) 2–0 Criciuma

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Previsão 30.31%3.30odd justa
EV +3.65%
Vantagem +1.07%
Kelly +1.51%
Crescimento +0.055%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.30%30.13%30.40%31.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.753.013.003.4236.36%33.22%33.33%29.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Criciuma (Visitante)

Previsão 37.26%2.68odd justa
EV -4.98%
Vantagem -1.95%
Kelly -3.21%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.22%37.45%37.20%40.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.472.502.5544.44%40.42%40.00%39.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 32.43%3.08odd justa
EV -4.33%
Vantagem -1.47%
Kelly -2.22%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.81%32.42%32.40%33.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.702.832.812.9537.04%35.29%35.59%33.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 30.31%; Criciuma (Visitante): 37.26%; Empate: 32.43%. Para Athletic Club (MG) (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.30. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.42, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.65%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.30%EV +3.65%E +1.07%K +1.51%G +0.055%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.74%EV -10.19%E -4.23%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:55
Pinnacle🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.86%EV +1.22%E +0.366%K +0.522%G +0.006%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.35%EV -6.28%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV +0.009%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -16.16%E -7.18%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 13:39
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.02%E -0.944%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 13:45
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -3.02%E -0.944%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 13:45
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.02%E -0.944%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.46%EV -10.49%E -3.80%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 13:49
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 13:40
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -6.60%E -2.29%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 13:35
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.32%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -8.55%E -3.03%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 13:35
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.32%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -8.55%E -3.03%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 13:34
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -5.95%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.44%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 13:50
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -6.05%E -1.95%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.44%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 13:44
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -7.57%E -2.48%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.15%EV -7.96%E -3.22%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:35
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.95%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:50
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 11:15
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 13:55
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 13:55
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.08%E -3.03%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 13:50
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.98%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.33%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.12%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 10:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.12%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 10:25
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.12%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -10.60%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.58%E -2.66%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:45
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.11%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 13:45
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.11%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -7.58%E -2.66%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 13:24
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.11%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -14.29%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -6.60%E -2.29%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 13:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -12.72%E -4.42%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -6.84%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 13:55
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.55%EV -9.45%E -3.89%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -15.14%E -5.41%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.55%EV -9.45%E -3.89%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -9.20%E -3.28%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -16.66%E -6.06%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -16.66%E -6.06%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -10.57%E -4.40%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -10.82%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.88%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%0.8%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.06%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.06%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.06%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.78%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.93%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.29%2.2%2026-08-09 13:55