The School of Odds
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Athletic Club (MG) v Botafogo-SP

2026-09-19 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Prediction 39.26%2.55fair odd
EV -6.56%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -4.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.08%39.26%39.26%39.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.332.382.3844.44%42.83%42.02%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo-SP (Visit)

Prediction 29.86%3.35fair odd
EV -7.42%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.85%29.86%29.86%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.053.103.1033.90%32.79%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.62%30.88%30.88%30.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.983.053.0534.72%33.52%32.79%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 39.26%; Botafogo-SP (Visit): 29.86%; Draw: 30.88%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.05, with an expected value of -5.83%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:04
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:04
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.42%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 22:04
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -8.92%E -3.84%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.92%E -2.92%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -8.92%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 22:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.27%EV -10.49%E -4.60%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -10.41%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.27%EV -10.49%E -4.60%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -10.41%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 21:40
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.27%EV -10.49%E -4.60%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -10.41%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.08%EV -10.49%E -4.60%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.20%EV -11.90%E -4.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 22:05
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.66%E -5.18%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.98%EV -11.90%E -4.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.71%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-12 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.