Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v Botafogo-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 40.30%2.48fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.51%40.51%40.27%42.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.242.252.4248.08%44.56%44.44%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo-SP (Visit)
Prediction 28.77%3.48fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.781%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%28.63%28.82%29.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.4133.33%30.78%30.77%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.61%30.86%30.91%32.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.983.1035.71%33.56%33.56%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 40.30%; Botafogo-SP (Visit): 28.77%; Draw: 30.92%. For Botafogo-SP (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.41, with an expected value of -1.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.78%EV -2.47%E -1.02%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.23%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.98%EV -6.92%E -2.30%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.29%E -2.25%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -5.69%E -2.43%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -7.85%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 21:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -5.69%E -2.43%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -7.85%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 21:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -5.69%E -2.43%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -7.85%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 21:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.59%EV -6.09%E -2.62%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.03%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.33%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-19 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 21:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.66%EV -8.11%E -3.56%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-19 21:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 21:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-19 21:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.25%E -3.92%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.25%E -3.92%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-19 21:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.31%EV -10.93%E -4.95%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.42%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -4.44%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-19 21:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.14%E -5.57%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.55%EV -13.75%E -6.43%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.39%EV -14.56%E -6.87%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.39%EV -14.56%E -6.87%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.39%EV -14.56%E -6.87%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -15.36%E -7.32%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-19 21:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -15.36%E -7.32%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.46%EV -16.17%E -7.77%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-19 21:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.42% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.57% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 21:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91% | 1.1% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91% | 1.1% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.22% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91% | 1.1% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.06% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-09-19 21:25 |