The School of Odds

Vitoria v Vasco da Gama

2026-07-16 22:30 — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (11 in analysis)

Option 1: Vitoria (Local)

Odds
2.1546.51%Min
2.3842.00%Mean
2.4041.67%Median
2.5139.84%Max
Consensus probabilities
37.57%2.661Min
39.54%2.529Max
38.19%2.619Mean
38.06%2.628Median
38.12%2.623IQM
38.15%2.621Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.51 under the IQM model: 38.12%

EV -4.31%Edge -1.72%Kelly -2.85%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Odds
2.5539.22%Min
2.8235.42%Mean
2.8035.71%Median
2.9633.78%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.65%3.160Min
33.14%3.018Max
32.40%3.087Mean
32.48%3.079Median
32.42%3.084IQM
32.44%3.083Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.96 under the IQM model: 32.42%

EV -4.02%Edge -1.36%Kelly -2.05%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.9533.90%Min
3.1132.16%Mean
3.0532.79%Median
3.3030.30%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.94%3.579Min
30.68%3.259Max
29.42%3.399Mean
29.46%3.394Median
29.45%3.395IQM
29.41%3.401Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.30 under the IQM model: 29.45%

EV -2.81%Edge -0.851%Kelly -1.22%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerVitoria (Local) ▼Vasco da Gama (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.51I 39.84% NM 38.23%EV -4.31% E -1.72% K -2.85% G +0.000%2.96I 33.78% NM 32.42%EV -4.02% E -1.36% K -2.05% G +0.000%3.27I 30.58% NM 29.35%EV -3.69% E -1.13% K -1.63% G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-25 20:10
Pinnacle2.51I 39.84% NM 38.01%EV -4.31% E -1.72% K -2.85% G +0.000%2.94I 34.01% NM 32.45%EV -4.67% E -1.59% K -2.41% G +0.000%3.23I 30.96% NM 29.54%EV -4.87% E -1.51% K -2.18% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-26 00:30
Bovada2.50I 40.00% NM 38.22%EV -4.69% E -1.88% K -3.13% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.39%EV -4.35% E -1.47% K -2.23% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 29.40%EV -4.28% E -1.32% K -1.90% G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-30 06:57
BetMGM2.50I 40.00% NM 37.83%EV -4.69% E -1.88% K -3.13% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.61%EV -5.97% E -2.06% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.56%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 02:50
Coral2.50I 40.00% NM 37.83%EV -4.69% E -1.88% K -3.13% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.61%EV -5.97% E -2.06% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.56%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 02:48
SportsBet2.45I 40.82% NM 38.52%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.87I 34.84% NM 32.88%EV -6.94% E -2.42% K -3.71% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.60%EV -2.81% E -0.851% K -1.22% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-24 04:10
FanDuel2.45I 40.82% NM 38.43%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.04%EV -7.59% E -2.66% K -4.10% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.53%EV -2.81% E -0.851% K -1.22% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-24 04:09
Fanatics2.45I 40.82% NM 38.31%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.36%EV -5.97% E -2.06% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.33%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-03 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82% NM 38.18%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.87I 34.84% NM 32.59%EV -6.94% E -2.42% K -3.71% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.23%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-01 02:50
Bet Right2.45I 40.82% NM 38.09%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.75%EV -7.59% E -2.66% K -4.10% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.16%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-24 04:09
Neds2.45I 40.82% NM 38.09%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.75%EV -7.59% E -2.66% K -4.10% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.16%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-01 02:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82% NM 38.09%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.75%EV -7.59% E -2.66% K -4.10% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.16%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-01 02:49
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82% NM 37.87%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 33.14%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.99%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 23:33
DraftKings2.45I 40.82% NM 37.74%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.44%EV -7.59% E -2.66% K -4.10% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.82%EV -8.70% E -2.81% K -4.14% G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-29 03:29
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82% NM 37.57%EV -6.60% E -2.69% K -4.55% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.74%EV -5.97% E -2.06% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.68%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 22:20
Marathon Bet2.44I 40.98% NM 38.25%EV -6.98% E -2.86% K -4.85% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 32.40%EV -6.62% E -2.30% K -3.52% G +0.000%3.18I 31.45% NM 29.35%EV -6.34% E -1.99% K -2.91% G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-25 20:09
LeoVegas2.40I 41.67% NM 38.40%EV -8.50% E -3.54% K -6.07% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.34%EV -7.59% E -2.66% K -4.10% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.26%EV -7.23% E -2.29% K -3.36% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-02 10:20
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 37.97%EV -8.50% E -3.54% K -6.07% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.65%EV -6.62% E -2.30% K -3.52% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.38%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-25 21:20
888sport2.40I 41.67% NM 37.97%EV -8.50% E -3.54% K -6.07% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.65%EV -6.62% E -2.30% K -3.52% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.38%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-25 21:29
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 37.97%EV -8.50% E -3.54% K -6.07% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.65%EV -6.62% E -2.30% K -3.52% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.38%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-25 21:30
William Hill2.40I 41.67% NM 37.97%EV -8.50% E -3.54% K -6.07% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.65%EV -6.62% E -2.30% K -3.52% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.38%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-26 01:40
Codere (IT)2.38I 42.02% NM 38.99%EV -9.27% E -3.89% K -6.71% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.00%EV -5.97% E -2.06% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.00%EV -5.75% E -1.80% K -2.62% G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-24 04:10
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02% NM 37.98%EV -9.27% E -3.89% K -6.71% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 32.87%EV -10.83% E -3.94% K -6.19% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.16%EV -8.70% E -2.81% K -4.14% G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-24 04:09
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:20
Grosvenor2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:30
PMU (FR)2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:29
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:30
Virgin Bet2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:29
Casumo2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:29
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:29
TABtouch2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:29
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:29
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:30
Unibet2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 03:39
BetRivers2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 06:40
betPARX2.33I 42.92% NM 38.52%EV -11.17% E -4.79% K -8.40% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.05%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.43%EV -10.17% E -3.33% K -4.96% G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-25 08:59
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48% NM 39.54%EV -12.32% E -5.35% K -9.47% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.48%EV -9.21% E -3.29% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.98%EV -4.28% E -1.32% K -1.90% G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-30 10:49
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48% NM 37.86%EV -12.32% E -5.35% K -9.47% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 33.11%EV -14.72% E -5.60% K -9.03% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.03%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-24 04:10
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45% NM 39.37%EV -16.13% E -7.33% K -13.44% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 32.69%EV -14.08% E -5.31% K -8.53% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.94%EV -8.70% E -2.81% K -4.14% G +0.000%15.4%2026-06-24 04:09
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45% NM 39.24%EV -16.13% E -7.33% K -13.44% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 31.98%EV -12.45% E -4.61% K -7.33% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.78%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-01 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45% NM 37.58%EV -16.13% E -7.33% K -13.44% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 31.80%EV -15.70% E -6.04% K -9.81% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 30.62%EV -20.48% E -7.59% K -12.05% G +0.000%21.0%2026-06-24 04:10
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87% NM 39.46%EV -16.89% E -7.75% K -14.31% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 31.86%EV -12.45% E -4.61% K -7.33% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.68%EV -11.64% E -3.88% K -5.82% G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-01 22:40
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51% NM 38.88%EV -18.03% E -8.39% K -15.68% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 32.78%EV -17.32% E -6.79% K -11.17% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 28.34%EV -13.12% E -4.45% K -6.73% G +0.000%19.6%2026-06-24 04:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerVitoria (Local)Vasco da Gama (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%3.00I 33.33%3.20I 31.25%4.0%2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%3.00I 33.33%3.20I 31.25%4.0%2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%3.00I 33.33%3.20I 31.25%4.6%2026-07-05 10:10