The School of Odds

Vitoria v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 22:30 UTC

Final: Vitoria 1–0 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vitoria (Local)

Prediction 37.91%2.64fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.554%
Kelly -0.901%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.26%37.95%37.86%39.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.482.6043%41%40%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.443%
Kelly -0.664%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.62%32.84%32.93%34.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.803.0038%35%36%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.20%3.42fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%29.21%29.22%30.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3333%31%31%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.44%E -0.554%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.59%EV -1.99%E -0.666%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.06%EV -5.68%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-16 22:25
LeoVegas2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -1.44%E -0.554%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 22:25
BetUS2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -1.44%E -0.554%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:20
BetAnything2.58I 38.76%NM 37.70%EV -2.20%E -0.853%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.09%EV -3.30%E -1.12%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.21%EV -2.76%E -0.828%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-16 22:25
Pinnacle2.58I 38.76%NM 37.51%EV -2.20%E -0.853%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -4.29%E -1.47%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.24%EV -3.34%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-16 22:25
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.13%EV -3.34%E -1.31%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%EV -1.33%E -0.443%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-16 22:15
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.13%EV -3.34%E -1.31%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%EV -1.33%E -0.443%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-16 22:20
GTbets2.50I 40.00%NM 38.37%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.30%EV -2.31%E -0.779%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.33%EV -4.51%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-16 22:25
LowVig.ag2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -3.63%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 22:15
BetOnline.ag2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -3.63%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 22:20
Bovada2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 22:24
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 22:20
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 22:20
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 22:20
betano_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:25
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:20
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:25
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:24
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:15
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-16 22:19
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -5.23%E -2.09%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Unibet (NL)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Unibet (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Marathon Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.65%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.99%EV -6.92%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.36%EV -7.14%E -2.24%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 37.50%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.98%EV -7.25%E -2.57%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 22:20
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.50%EV -5.99%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.98%EV -7.25%E -2.57%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 22:20
Codere (IT)2.47I 40.49%NM 38.29%EV -6.37%E -2.58%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.10%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 22:15
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 22:20
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 22:05
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -5.28%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 22:25
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-16 22:20
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-16 22:25
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 22:20
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 22:20
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 22:20
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.13%E -2.91%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.11%EV -7.89%E -3.25%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-16 22:05
Coolbet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -8.26%E -3.42%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -1.33%E -0.443%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 21:35
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-16 22:05
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-16 22:25
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-16 22:05
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-16 22:20
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-16 22:05
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-16 22:05
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-16 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-16 22:15
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.02%E -3.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-16 22:20
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-16 22:20
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -9.78%E -4.11%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-16 22:20
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -10.92%E -4.65%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-16 22:15
Betclic (FR)2.33I 42.92%NM 38.64%EV -11.68%E -5.01%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.50%EV -8.89%E -3.21%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.86%EV -8.89%E -2.85%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-16 22:15
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-16 22:15
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -12.81%E -5.57%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -12.84%E -4.85%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-16 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 37.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.80%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.87%-0.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.03%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-07-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.1%2026-07-16 22:25
Smarkets2.62I 38.17%NM 37.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.45%1.4%2026-07-16 22:25
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-07-16 22:25