The School of Odds

Vitoria v Palmeiras

2026-07-30 00:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

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Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vitoria (Local)

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%25.30%25.31%26.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.623.603.8031%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 46.73%2.14fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.31%46.70%46.75%47.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.982.002.0556%51%50%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.00%3.57fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -0.797%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.00%27.94%28.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.5033%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.98%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-23 15:10
Fanatics3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.98%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-23 15:23
1xBet3.79I 26.39%NM 25.34%EV -4.23%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.07%EV -4.67%E -2.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.59%EV -2.55%E -0.733%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-23 15:50
Unibet (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -5.24%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%EV -7.48%E -3.78%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -8.99%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 15:09
Codere (IT)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.24%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.92%EV -7.94%E -4.03%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.99%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-23 15:10
SportsBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.10%EV -5.61%E -2.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.99%E -0.569%K -0.797%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.79%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 15:15
BetMGM3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.79%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 15:15
Neds3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.79%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.79%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 15:10
Coral3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.79%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 15:13
NordicBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -7.48%E -3.78%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.19%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-23 15:20
Betsson3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -7.48%E -3.78%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.19%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-23 15:19
Marathon Bet3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -7.01%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -7.48%E -3.78%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -5.35%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 15:40
LowVig.ag3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.77%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -5.61%E -2.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.19%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 18:15
BetOnline.ag3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.77%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -5.61%E -2.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.19%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 18:15
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -4.20%E -2.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.99%E -0.569%K -0.797%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 18:25
FanDuel3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.79%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 18:25
Bet Victor3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 19:04
betano_uk3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 19:05
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.39%E -3.25%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 15:54
Mr Green (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.39%E -3.25%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 15:55
888sport (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.39%E -3.25%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 15:55
William Hill3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.39%E -3.25%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 16:00
Betclic (FR)3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -9.54%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.18%EV -13.08%E -7.03%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.31%EV -13.19%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-23 15:08
Bet Right3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.29%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -6.19%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-23 18:25
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -11.56%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.20%E -2.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 18:25
betfred_uk3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.56%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.54%E -3.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 18:25
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.56%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -10.75%E -5.63%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.59%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-23 18:25
Unibet (FR)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -11.56%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.89%EV -14.48%E -7.92%K -17.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%EV -15.99%E -5.33%K -8.00%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-23 15:09
Winamax (DE)3.45I 28.99%NM 25.32%EV -12.83%E -3.72%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 46.96%EV -13.08%E -7.03%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.73%EV -11.79%E -3.74%K -5.49%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-23 15:09
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 25.42%EV -16.62%E -5.03%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.61%EV -15.89%E -8.83%K -19.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.97%EV -15.99%E -5.33%K -8.00%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-23 15:10
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -17.88%E -5.50%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.38%EV -10.75%E -5.63%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.96%EV -13.19%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-23 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.