Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitoria v Coritiba

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 21:30 UTC

Final: Vitoria 4–1 Coritiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitoria (Local)

Prediction 42.98%2.33fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.879%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.22%42.98%43.00%43.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.172.2848.78%46.17%46.19%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coritiba (Visit)

Prediction 26.25%3.81fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.629%
Kelly -0.860%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.25%26.23%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.553.7230.77%28.13%28.17%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.77%3.25fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.05%30.77%30.77%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.023.1534.72%33.13%33.06%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitoria (Local): 42.98%; Coritiba (Visit): 26.25%; Draw: 30.77%. For Vitoria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -2.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.47%EV -2.01%E -0.879%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.10%EV -2.60%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.44%EV -5.24%E -1.70%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 21:20
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.69%EV -2.43%E -1.07%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -2.34%E -0.629%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -3.09%E -0.979%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 21:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -3.09%E -0.979%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 21:15
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 21:05
GTbets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.87%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.78%EV -6.28%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.35%EV -3.09%E -0.979%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:10
BetAnything🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.44%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 21:05
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:25
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 21:05
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 21:05
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:20
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:05
Coolbet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.44%EV -5.87%E -2.68%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.57%EV -2.34%E -0.629%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.99%EV -5.55%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 20:40
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -6.30%E -2.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -6.30%E -2.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 21:25
BetUS🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.29%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Bovada🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.41%EV -7.16%E -3.32%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:22
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.17%EV -7.16%E -3.32%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.29%EV -8.32%E -2.79%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:25
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 21:24
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 21:05
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 21:20
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:20
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 21:15
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 21:25
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 21:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -8.02%E -3.75%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 21:15
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -8.88%E -4.19%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 21:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 21:10
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 21:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 21:15
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 21:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -12.05%E -3.60%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 21:04
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.57%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.92%EV -12.84%E -3.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.51%EV -9.85%E -3.36%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 21:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.33%EV -10.60%E -5.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.33%EV -10.60%E -5.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 21:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.89%E -5.80%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -14.68%E -4.52%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -10.78%E -3.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 26.01%3.23I 30.96%NM 31.01%-0.1%2026-05-02 21:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%0.4%2026-05-02 21:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%0.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%0.4%2026-05-02 21:10
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-05-02 21:25
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.24%1.6%2026-05-02 21:10