La escuela de los momios

Vitoria v Coritiba

Inicio: 2026-05-02 21:30 UTC

Final: Vitoria 4–1 Coritiba

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Vitoria (Local)

Predicción 42.98%2.33momio equitativo
EV -2.01%
Ventaja -0.879%
Kelly -1.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.22%42.98%43.00%43.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.172.172.2848.78%46.17%46.19%43.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Coritiba (Visitante)

Predicción 26.25%3.81momio equitativo
EV -2.34%
Ventaja -0.629%
Kelly -0.860%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.29%26.25%26.23%27.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.553.553.7230.77%28.13%28.17%26.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.77%3.25momio equitativo
EV -3.09%
Ventaja -0.979%
Kelly -1.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.05%30.77%30.77%31.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.023.023.1534.72%33.13%33.06%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.47%EV -2.01%E -0.879%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.10%EV -2.60%E -0.701%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.44%EV -5.24%E -1.70%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 21:20
1xBet2.27I 44.05%NM 42.69%EV -2.43%E -1.07%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -2.34%E -0.629%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 21:25
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -3.09%E -0.979%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 21:20
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -3.09%E -0.979%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 21:15
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 21:05
GTbets2.23I 44.84%NM 42.87%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.78%EV -6.28%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.35%EV -3.09%E -0.979%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 21:10
BetOnline.ag2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:10
LowVig.ag2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:10
BetAnything2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:10
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.44%EV -4.15%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 21:05
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:25
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:20
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 21:05
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 21:05
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:20
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:05
Coolbet2.19I 45.66%NM 43.44%EV -5.87%E -2.68%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.57%EV -2.34%E -0.629%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.99%EV -5.55%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 20:40
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -6.30%E -2.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -6.30%E -2.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 21:25
BetUS2.17I 46.08%NM 43.29%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (NL)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Grosvenor2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Unibet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Casumo2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:20
Unibet (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
betPARX2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.73%E -3.10%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:15
Bovada2.16I 46.30%NM 43.41%EV -7.16%E -3.32%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:22
Marathon Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.17%EV -7.16%E -3.32%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.29%EV -8.32%E -2.79%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:25
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.86%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 21:24
BetRivers2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 21:05
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 21:20
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:20
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:15
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.62%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:15
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.16%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 21:15
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 21:25
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 21:15
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -8.02%E -3.75%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 21:15
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -8.88%E -4.19%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 21:05
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 21:10
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 21:05
PMU (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 21:15
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 21:15
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.70%E -2.57%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -12.05%E -3.60%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 21:04
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.39%E -3.96%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.57%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.92%EV -12.84%E -3.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.51%EV -9.85%E -3.36%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 21:05
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.33%EV -10.60%E -5.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 21:15
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.33%EV -10.60%E -5.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.55%EV -9.24%E -3.13%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 21:15
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.89%E -5.80%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -14.68%E -4.52%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -10.78%E -3.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 21:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 26.01%3.23I 30.96%NM 31.01%-0.1%2026-05-02 21:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%0.4%2026-05-02 21:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%0.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%0.4%2026-05-02 21:10
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-05-02 21:25
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.24%1.6%2026-05-02 21:10