The School of Odds

Vasco da Gama v Mirassol

2026-07-25 23:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 49.39%2.02fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%49.29%49.41%50.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.721.861.881.9558%54%53%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Mirassol (Visit)

Prediction 22.63%4.42fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%22.66%22.56%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.553.984.004.2628%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.98%3.57fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.12%28.06%28.03%29.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.273.4133%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -4.94%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 15:19
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.40%EV -4.18%E -2.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.50%EV -3.59%E -0.842%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.10%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:40
SportsBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.19%EV -5.17%E -2.69%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -7.21%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 15:19
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.21%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 15:44
Bet Right1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.67%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 15:19
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 15:19
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 15:19
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 15:20
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 15:20
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.24%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -9.07%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 15:19
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -6.65%E -3.52%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -6.08%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -7.11%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 18:40
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -6.08%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.27%E -1.87%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 15:19
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -6.08%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.27%E -1.87%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 15:19
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -9.47%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.67%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 18:59
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.21%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -7.67%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 15:19
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -8.63%E -4.66%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -14.00%E -3.68%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.07%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-17 15:24
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.21%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -4.87%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 15:19
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -11.10%E -6.17%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -18.52%E -5.15%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -16.07%E -5.36%K -8.03%G +0.000%16.7%2026-07-17 15:19
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.52%EV -13.07%E -7.43%K -17.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -15.13%E -4.03%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -10.47%E -3.27%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-17 15:19
Unibet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 49.38%EV -13.57%E -7.75%K -18.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -14.00%E -3.68%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-17 15:19
Betclic (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 49.61%EV -14.06%E -8.08%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.54%EV -13.32%E -3.48%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.85%EV -13.27%E -4.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-17 15:19
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 48.82%EV -15.05%E -8.75%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.65%EV -19.66%E -5.54%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.53%EV -14.67%E -4.81%K -7.15%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-17 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.