Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Vasco da Gama v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-22 19:02 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prévision 50.13%1.99cote équitable
EV -1.75%
Avantage -0.890%
Kelly -1.82%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.73%50.17%49.97%51.66%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.661.861.851.9660.24%53.90%54.05%51.02%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.76%4.39cote équitable
EV +5.37%
Avantage +1.16%
Kelly +1.48%
Croissance +0.079%

avec la cote maximale 4.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.86%22.72%22.84%24.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.604.044.004.6327.78%24.74%25.00%21.60%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 27.11%3.69cote équitable
EV -2.40%
Avantage -0.666%
Kelly -0.922%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.88%27.12%27.19%28.61%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.003.403.403.6033.33%29.39%29.41%27.78%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Vasco da Gama (Local) : 50.13% ; Grêmio (Visiteur) : 22.76% ; Match nul : 27.11%. Pour Grêmio (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.39. 7 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.63, soit une espérance positive de +5.37%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.82%EV -4.75%E -2.50%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.86%EV +5.37%E +1.16%K +1.48%G +0.079%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.32%EV -7.55%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 18:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV +2.87%E +0.634%K +0.814%G +0.023%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV +2.87%E +0.634%K +0.814%G +0.023%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 19:00
BetAnything🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV +2.87%E +0.634%K +0.814%G +0.023%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 18:59
BetUS🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -6.76%E -3.63%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.09%EV +1.27%E +0.286%K +0.369%G +0.005%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 18:59
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.09%EV -4.75%E -2.50%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.86%EV +1.05%E +0.235%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.59I 27.86%NM 27.04%EV -2.67%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV +0.135%E +0.031%K +0.040%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 18:59
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%EV -6.76%E -3.63%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.91%EV -1.46%E -0.337%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.70%EV -7.76%E -4.22%K -9.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -1.46%E -0.337%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.76%EV -8.90%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 18:59
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -2.14%E -0.498%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 18:58
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -2.14%E -0.498%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.26%E -4.51%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -2.14%E -0.498%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 18:59
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.20%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.85%EV -2.67%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 18:59
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.66%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.75%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 18:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.07%EV -1.75%E -0.890%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 18:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -3.75%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -2.40%E -0.666%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 18:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.15%EV -1.75%E -0.890%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.76%EV -2.40%E -0.666%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 19:00
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 19:00
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 18:59
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 18:59
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-22 19:00
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 19:00
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.09%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -2.40%E -0.666%K -0.922%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -6.46%E -1.87%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -6.46%E -1.87%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 18:59
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -3.25%E -1.68%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 18:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.94%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.59%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.89%EV -10.77%E -6.05%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 19:00
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -3.25%E -1.68%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -12.38%E -3.22%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.88%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -12.38%E -3.22%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -10.77%E -6.05%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -12.38%E -3.22%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.54%EV -8.63%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 18:59
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-22 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.77%EV -7.76%E -4.22%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -13.28%E -7.67%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -13.28%E -7.67%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 18:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.48%EV -16.78%E -10.11%K -25.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.05%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.47%EV -17.31%E -5.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.16%EV -8.26%E -4.51%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -14.66%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.61%EV -12.77%E -7.34%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -14.66%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.61%EV -13.28%E -7.67%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.36%EV -18.07%E -5.02%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.03%EV -18.66%E -6.22%K -9.33%G +0.000%18.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 51.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%0.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.71%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.14%2.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.94%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%4.9%2026-03-22 19:00