La escuela de los momios

Vasco da Gama v Grêmio

Inicio: 2026-03-22 19:02 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Predicción 50.13%1.99momio equitativo
EV -1.75%
Ventaja -0.890%
Kelly -1.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.73%50.17%49.97%51.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.661.861.851.9660.24%53.90%54.05%51.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Grêmio (Visitante)

Predicción 22.76%4.39momio equitativo
EV +5.37%
Ventaja +1.16%
Kelly +1.48%
Crecimiento +0.079%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.86%22.72%22.84%24.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.044.004.6327.78%24.74%25.00%21.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.11%3.69momio equitativo
EV -2.40%
Ventaja -0.666%
Kelly -0.922%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.88%27.12%27.19%28.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.403.403.6033.33%29.39%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 50.82%EV -4.75%E -2.50%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.86%EV +5.37%E +1.16%K +1.48%G +0.079%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.32%EV -7.55%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 18:59
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV +2.87%E +0.634%K +0.814%G +0.023%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 18:59
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV +2.87%E +0.634%K +0.814%G +0.023%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 19:00
BetAnything1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.05%EV +2.87%E +0.634%K +0.814%G +0.023%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 18:59
BetUS1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -6.76%E -3.63%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.09%EV +1.27%E +0.286%K +0.369%G +0.005%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 18:59
1xBet1.90I 52.63%NM 51.09%EV -4.75%E -2.50%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.86%EV +1.05%E +0.235%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.59I 27.86%NM 27.04%EV -2.67%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV +0.135%E +0.031%K +0.040%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 18:59
SportsBet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%EV -6.76%E -3.63%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.91%EV -1.46%E -0.337%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Marathon Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.70%EV -7.76%E -4.22%K -9.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -1.46%E -0.337%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.76%EV -8.90%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 18:59
Coolbet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -2.14%E -0.498%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 18:58
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -2.14%E -0.498%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 19:00
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.26%E -4.51%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -2.14%E -0.498%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 18:59
GTbets1.92I 52.08%NM 50.20%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.85%EV -2.67%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 18:59
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 51.66%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.75%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 18:59
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.07%EV -1.75%E -0.890%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 18:59
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -3.75%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -2.40%E -0.666%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 18:59
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.15%EV -1.75%E -0.890%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.76%EV -2.40%E -0.666%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 19:00
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 19:00
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 18:59
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 18:59
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 18:59
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-22 19:00
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 19:00
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Bet Right1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.09%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 19:00
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -2.40%E -0.666%K -0.922%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (NL)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -6.46%E -1.87%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -3.75%E -1.95%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -6.46%E -1.87%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 18:59
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -3.25%E -1.68%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 18:55
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 18:59
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 18:59
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 48.94%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.59%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 19:00
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.89%EV -10.77%E -6.05%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 19:00
PlayUp1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -3.25%E -1.68%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -12.38%E -3.22%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 49.88%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -12.38%E -3.22%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -10.77%E -6.05%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -12.38%E -3.22%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.54%EV -8.63%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 18:59
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.26%E -3.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-22 19:00
LiveScore Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 48.77%EV -7.76%E -4.22%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.89%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Parions Sport (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -13.28%E -7.67%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -13.28%E -7.67%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 18:59
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.48%EV -16.78%E -10.11%K -25.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.05%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.47%EV -17.31%E -5.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-22 19:00
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.16%EV -8.26%E -4.51%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -14.66%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 19:00
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.61%EV -12.77%E -7.34%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -14.66%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 48.61%EV -13.28%E -7.67%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.36%EV -18.07%E -5.02%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.03%EV -18.66%E -6.22%K -9.33%G +0.000%18.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 51.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%0.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.71%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.14%2.4%2026-03-22 19:00
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.94%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%4.9%2026-03-22 19:00