The School of Odds
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Sao Paulo v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 46.51%2.15fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.53%46.51%46.24%47.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.962.0452.36%50.68%51.02%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 25.15%3.98fair odd
EV +0.606%
Edge +0.152%
Kelly +0.202%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.07%25.15%25.24%26.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.773.804.0028.57%26.52%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.652%
Kelly -0.918%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.87%28.33%28.52%28.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.303.303.4531.25%30.35%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 46.51%; Santos (Visit): 25.15%; Draw: 28.33%. For Santos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.606%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%EV -5.11%E -2.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV +0.606%E +0.152%K +0.202%G +0.001%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -2.25%E -0.652%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-27 07:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%EV -5.11%E -2.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV +0.606%E +0.152%K +0.202%G +0.001%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -2.25%E -0.652%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-27 07:10
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.77%EV -8.37%E -4.25%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.91%E -0.489%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-27 07:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -8.83%E -4.51%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.91%E -0.489%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 07:10
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -8.83%E -4.51%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.91%E -0.489%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 07:10
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -8.83%E -4.51%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.91%E -0.489%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 07:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -8.83%E -4.51%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.91%E -0.489%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 07:10
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -8.83%E -4.51%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.91%E -0.489%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-27 07:08
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -9.30%E -4.77%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -3.17%E -0.822%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 07:09
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -9.76%E -5.03%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -3.17%E -0.822%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -6.50%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -10.23%E -5.30%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.42%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.50%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 07:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -11.16%E -5.84%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.92%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 07:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -11.16%E -5.84%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.92%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 07:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -11.16%E -5.84%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.92%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 07:10
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -6.04%E -2.99%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.92%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 14:10
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -6.04%E -2.99%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.92%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.20%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.33%E -2.92%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 14:10
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.97%E -3.42%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.33%E -2.92%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.97%E -3.42%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.33%E -2.92%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.97%E -3.42%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.33%E -2.92%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.97%E -3.42%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.33%E -2.92%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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