The School of Odds

Sao Paulo v Santos

2026-07-29 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 46.43%2.15fair odd
EV -5.28%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -5.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.53%46.43%46.14%47.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.911.981.972.0452.36%50.58%50.76%49.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV +2.28%
Edge +0.557%
Kelly +0.736%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%24.95%25.19%26.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.823.904.1028.57%26.17%25.64%24.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.62%3.49fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.792%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.43%28.62%28.68%28.84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.253.253.4031.75%30.75%30.77%29.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.67%EV -5.28%E -2.59%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV +2.28%E +0.557%K +0.736%G +0.017%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV -2.69%E -0.792%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-26 15:25
Svenska Spel2.04I 49.02%NM 47.67%EV -5.28%E -2.59%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV +2.28%E +0.557%K +0.736%G +0.017%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV -2.69%E -0.792%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-26 15:25
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.59%EV -8.06%E -4.07%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 15:25
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -8.53%E -4.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 15:25
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -8.53%E -4.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 15:25
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -8.53%E -4.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 15:25
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -8.53%E -4.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 15:25
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -8.53%E -4.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 15:25
BetRivers1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -8.99%E -4.59%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -1.46%E -0.369%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 15:25
TABtouch1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -9.45%E -4.85%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -2.71%E -0.694%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.88%EV -10.38%E -5.38%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -2.71%E -0.694%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-26 15:25
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.56%EV -11.31%E -5.92%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -3.95%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:25
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.56%EV -11.31%E -5.92%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -3.95%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:25
PMU (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.56%EV -11.31%E -5.92%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -3.95%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:25
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -6.20%E -3.07%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 14:10
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -6.20%E -3.07%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 14:10
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -7.13%E -3.57%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.94%E -2.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 14:10
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.13%E -3.57%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.13%E -3.57%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.13%E -3.57%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.13%E -3.57%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.69%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.