Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 42.09%2.38fair odd
EV +0.182%
Edge +0.077%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.48%42.05%42.17%44.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3847.62%44.79%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruzeiro (Visit)

Prediction 28.02%3.57fair odd
EV +5.35%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.104%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.93%28.00%29.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.7633.33%29.55%29.41%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.89%3.35fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -0.998%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.81%30.02%29.83%33.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.033.103.2737.04%32.98%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 42.09%; Cruzeiro (Visit): 28.02%; Draw: 29.89%. For Cruzeiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.81%EV +5.35%E +1.42%K +1.94%G +0.104%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.68%EV -2.26%E -0.693%K -0.998%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 21:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV +0.182%E +0.077%K +0.132%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV +3.67%E +0.991%K +1.36%G +0.050%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.93%EV -11.83%E -4.01%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 21:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV +0.182%E +0.077%K +0.132%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV +3.67%E +0.991%K +1.36%G +0.050%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.93%EV -11.83%E -4.01%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 21:15
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 21:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
GTbets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -7.64%E -2.47%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 16:14
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 21:24
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -16.31%E -5.83%K -9.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 21:15
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -16.31%E -5.83%K -9.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 21:15
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.88%EV -2.78%E -0.800%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.05%EV -3.76%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 21:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -3.34%E -0.967%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 21:15
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -3.34%E -0.967%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 21:14
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 21:05
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 21:04
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:09
BetUS🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.75%EV -7.82%E -3.57%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 21:24
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 21:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -6.13%E -2.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 21:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -6.13%E -2.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 21:15
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.14%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 21:13
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 21:24
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:24
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -6.15%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 21:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 21:10
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:04
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:25
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 21:25
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:09
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:15
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 21:04
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 21:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 21:20
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 21:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -11.74%E -3.73%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 21:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -11.74%E -3.73%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.83%EV -10.34%E -4.85%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.47%EV -12.30%E -3.93%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 21:13
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -13.14%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 21:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -11.60%E -5.53%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -13.14%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -19.30%E -7.15%K -11.35%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-04 15:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.60%E -5.53%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -15.95%E -5.32%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.01%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.28%0.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.16%2.0%2026-04-04 21:25
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-04-04 21:25