L’École des cotes

Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 21:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prévision 42.09%2.38cote équitable
EV +0.182%
Avantage +0.077%
Kelly +0.132%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.38

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.48%42.05%42.17%44.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.232.252.3847.62%44.79%44.44%42.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cruzeiro (Visiteur)

Prévision 28.02%3.57cote équitable
EV +5.35%
Avantage +1.42%
Kelly +1.94%
Croissance +0.104%

avec la cote maximale 3.76

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.81%27.93%28.00%29.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.383.403.7633.33%29.55%29.41%26.60%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.89%3.35cote équitable
EV -2.26%
Avantage -0.693%
Kelly -0.998%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.27

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.81%30.02%29.83%33.12%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.703.033.103.2737.04%32.98%32.26%30.58%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.81%EV +5.35%E +1.42%K +1.94%G +0.104%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.68%EV -2.26%E -0.693%K -0.998%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 21:24
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV +0.182%E +0.077%K +0.132%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV +3.67%E +0.991%K +1.36%G +0.050%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.93%EV -11.83%E -4.01%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 21:15
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV +0.182%E +0.077%K +0.132%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV +3.67%E +0.991%K +1.36%G +0.050%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.93%EV -11.83%E -4.01%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 21:15
betPARX2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Grosvenor2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:14
Unibet (NL)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Unibet (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -2.34%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 21:15
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -0.536%E -0.151%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -14.82%E -5.20%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 21:15
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 17:20
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
BetAnything2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
GTbets2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -7.64%E -2.47%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 16:14
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 21:24
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -16.31%E -5.83%K -9.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 21:15
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -1.94%E -0.553%K -0.775%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -16.31%E -5.83%K -9.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 21:15
Pinnacle2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.88%EV -2.78%E -0.800%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.05%EV -3.76%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 21:24
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -3.34%E -0.967%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 21:15
TABtouch2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -3.34%E -0.967%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 21:14
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 21:05
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 21:04
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -3.19%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:09
BetUS2.19I 45.66%NM 42.75%EV -7.82%E -3.57%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 21:24
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 21:24
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -6.13%E -2.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 21:14
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -6.13%E -2.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -17.81%E -6.48%K -10.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 21:15
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.14%EV -6.75%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 21:13
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 21:24
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:24
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:25
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -6.15%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 21:24
Codere (IT)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 21:10
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:04
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:25
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 21:25
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 21:09
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 21:15
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 21:04
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 21:19
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 21:20
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.35%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 21:15
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -11.74%E -3.73%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 21:20
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -11.74%E -3.73%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 21:09
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 41.83%EV -10.34%E -4.85%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.47%EV -12.30%E -3.93%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 21:13
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -13.14%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 21:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -11.60%E -5.53%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -13.14%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -19.30%E -7.15%K -11.35%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-04 15:39
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.60%E -5.53%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -15.95%E -5.32%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 21:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.01%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.28%0.1%2026-04-04 21:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-04 21:24
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.16%2.0%2026-04-04 21:25
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-04-04 21:25