L’École des cotes

Sao Paulo v Botafogo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-23 20:00 UTC

Score final : Sao Paulo 1–1 Botafogo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prévision 54.71%1.83cote équitable
EV -2.07%
Avantage -1.16%
Kelly -2.63%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.79

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.69%54.78%54.60%56.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.611.691.701.7962.11%59.04%58.82%55.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Botafogo (Visiteur)

Prévision 19.96%5.01cote équitable
EV +1.78%
Avantage +0.349%
Kelly +0.435%
Croissance +0.008%

avec la cote maximale 5.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.16%19.87%20.03%21.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.104.684.705.1024.39%21.35%21.28%19.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.34%3.95cote équitable
EV -1.19%
Avantage -0.305%
Kelly -0.411%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.22%25.35%25.37%27.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.673.703.9032.26%27.22%27.03%25.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.47%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.93%EV +1.78%E +0.349%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.60%EV -4.48%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-23 19:39
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.16%EV +1.78%E +0.349%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 19:49
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 19:49
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 19:49
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.54%E -4.46%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -1.95%E -0.504%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 19:19
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.54%E -4.46%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -1.95%E -0.504%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 19:19
Coolbet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.72%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.23%EV -8.03%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 19:39
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -7.54%E -4.46%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 19:19
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 19:49
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 19:40
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:39
BetUS1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:39
BetAnything1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:39
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 19:39
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 19:19
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 19:49
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 19:48
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.80%EV -9.19%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 19:49
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 19:49
GTbets1.78I 56.18%NM 54.16%EV -2.62%E -1.47%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.47%EV -6.00%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-23 19:19
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.26%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 19:39
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -6.26%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 19:49
PMU (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.61%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 19:19
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 55.61%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 19:19
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.10%EV -2.07%E -1.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.01%EV -8.00%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.89%EV -1.44%E -0.371%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 19:49
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 19:19
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 19:19
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 19:09
Codere (IT)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 19:19
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 19:19
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:10
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:10
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:09
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.68%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-23 19:49
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.68%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-23 19:49
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.86%E -4.08%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 19:49
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.49%EV -9.19%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -7.78%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 19:39
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 19:19
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 19:19
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.26%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 19:19
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 19:40
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -11.19%E -2.51%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 19:40
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -11.19%E -2.51%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 19:39
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 19:39
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.38%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -13.19%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-23 19:32
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -13.59%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.72%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.73%EV -13.59%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -21.46%E -6.92%K -10.22%G +0.000%17.1%2026-05-23 19:29
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.39%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -14.18%E -3.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 19:09
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.05%EV -11.92%E -7.40%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.72%EV -16.18%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -12.59%E -3.65%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-23 19:39
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.71%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.48%EV -18.18%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-23 19:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.93%5.26I 19.01%NM 19.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.03%-0.1%2026-05-23 19:49
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.80%0.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.80%0.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.80%0.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.94%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-05-23 19:49
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 56.08%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.28%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%1.3%2026-05-23 19:49