La escuela de los momios

Sao Paulo v Botafogo

Inicio: 2026-05-23 20:00 UTC

Final: Sao Paulo 1–1 Botafogo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Predicción 54.71%1.83momio equitativo
EV -2.07%
Ventaja -1.16%
Kelly -2.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.69%54.78%54.60%56.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.611.691.701.7962.11%59.04%58.82%55.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Botafogo (Visitante)

Predicción 19.96%5.01momio equitativo
EV +1.78%
Ventaja +0.349%
Kelly +0.435%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.16%19.87%20.03%21.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.104.684.705.1024.39%21.35%21.28%19.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.34%3.95momio equitativo
EV -1.19%
Ventaja -0.305%
Kelly -0.411%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.22%25.35%25.37%27.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.673.703.9032.26%27.22%27.03%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.47%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.93%EV +1.78%E +0.349%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.60%EV -4.48%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-23 19:39
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.16%EV +1.78%E +0.349%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 19:49
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 19:49
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.74%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 19:49
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.54%E -4.46%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -1.95%E -0.504%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 19:19
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.54%E -4.46%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -1.95%E -0.504%K -0.680%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 19:19
Coolbet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.72%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.23%EV -8.03%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 19:39
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -7.54%E -4.46%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 19:19
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 19:49
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -0.214%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 19:40
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:39
BetUS1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:39
BetAnything1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:39
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -2.21%E -0.451%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 19:39
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 19:49
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -4.21%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 19:19
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 19:49
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 19:48
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.80%EV -9.19%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 19:49
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 19:49
GTbets1.78I 56.18%NM 54.16%EV -2.62%E -1.47%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.47%EV -6.00%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-23 19:19
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.26%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 19:39
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -6.26%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 19:49
PMU (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.61%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 19:19
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 55.61%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -6.20%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 19:19
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.10%EV -2.07%E -1.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.01%EV -8.00%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.89%EV -1.44%E -0.371%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 19:49
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 19:19
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -1.19%E -0.305%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 19:19
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 19:09
Codere (IT)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 19:19
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -3.72%E -0.980%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 19:19
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:10
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:10
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:09
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.68%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-23 19:49
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.68%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -7.53%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-23 19:49
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.86%E -4.08%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 19:49
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.49%EV -9.19%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -7.78%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 19:39
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 19:19
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 19:19
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.26%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 19:19
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.19%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 19:40
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -11.19%E -2.51%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 19:40
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -11.19%E -2.51%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 19:39
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.24%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 19:39
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.38%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -13.19%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-23 19:32
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -13.59%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.72%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.73%EV -13.59%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -21.46%E -6.92%K -10.22%G +0.000%17.1%2026-05-23 19:29
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.39%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -14.18%E -3.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 19:09
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.05%EV -11.92%E -7.40%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.72%EV -16.18%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -12.59%E -3.65%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-23 19:39
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.71%EV -10.28%E -6.27%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.48%EV -18.18%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -10.06%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-23 19:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.93%5.26I 19.01%NM 19.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.03%-0.1%2026-05-23 19:49
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.80%0.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.80%0.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.80%0.7%2026-05-23 19:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.94%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-05-23 19:49
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 56.08%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.28%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%1.3%2026-05-23 19:49