La escuela de los momios

Sao Paulo v Bahia

Inicio: 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Final: Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sao Paulo (Local)

Predicción 46.66%2.14momio equitativo
EV -3.88%
Ventaja -1.88%
Kelly -3.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.43%46.66%46.70%47.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.891.992.002.0652.91%50.29%50.00%48.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bahia (Visitante)

Predicción 25.52%3.92momio equitativo
EV +2.08%
Ventaja +0.519%
Kelly +0.692%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.80%25.49%25.47%27.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.663.654.0030.77%27.33%27.40%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.82%3.59momio equitativo
EV -2.35%
Ventaja -0.669%
Kelly -0.935%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.46%27.85%27.83%29.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.343.353.5134.72%29.97%29.85%28.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV +2.08%E +0.519%K +0.692%G +0.014%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -7.35%E -2.21%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 11:00
LowVig.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV +2.08%E +0.519%K +0.692%G +0.014%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -7.35%E -2.21%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 10:58
Coolbet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.97%EV -5.28%E -2.60%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.14%EV +0.801%E +0.203%K +0.271%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 11:10
1xBet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.33%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%EV -0.475%E -0.122%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.80%EV -2.90%E -0.832%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Svenska Spel2.04I 49.02%NM 47.48%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -0.475%E -0.122%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -2.63%E -0.750%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 18:51
ATG (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.48%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -0.475%E -0.122%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -2.63%E -0.750%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 18:51
GTbets1.99I 50.25%NM 46.85%EV -7.15%E -3.59%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -2.01%E -0.522%K -0.706%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.87%EV -10.14%E -3.14%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 18:25
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 46.97%EV -3.88%E -1.88%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.57%EV -2.35%E -0.669%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -7.61%E -3.85%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:55
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.67%EV -8.08%E -4.10%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:51
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 47.67%EV -8.08%E -4.10%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:55
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.67%EV -8.08%E -4.10%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.67%EV -8.08%E -4.10%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:51
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.67%EV -8.08%E -4.10%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:51
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:40
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.03%E -0.797%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:39
Codere (IT)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%EV -5.75%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.30%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 10:24
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%EV -5.75%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.30%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 10:24
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -4.30%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -9.48%E -4.89%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -4.30%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 18:51
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:35
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:51
LeoVegas1.93I 51.81%NM 47.47%EV -9.95%E -5.15%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Marathon Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.61%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.47%EV -6.60%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -7.08%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Bovada2.01I 49.75%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.09%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:55
BetUS2.01I 49.75%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.09%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:55
BetAnything2.01I 49.75%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.09%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:55
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 18:35
PMU (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -10.88%E -5.70%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 18:51
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -10.88%E -5.70%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Virgin Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 47.63%EV -11.81%E -6.25%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.58%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 18:51
LiveScore Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 47.63%EV -11.81%E -6.25%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -6.85%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.58%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 18:55
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:50
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:46
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:46
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.63%E -0.750%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:49
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -4.35%E -2.12%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:46
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:15
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 18:30
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 18:31
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 18:30
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 18:30
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 18:39
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -5.75%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.41%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:25
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -5.75%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.41%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.76%EV -10.88%E -5.70%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -9.41%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.08%EV -11.53%E -3.63%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 18:34
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.10%EV -11.81%E -6.25%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%EV -9.41%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 18:30
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.68%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -2.63%E -0.750%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:55
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -5.75%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.68%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.62%EV -8.55%E -4.36%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -10.68%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -6.80%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 10:25
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.68%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.75%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 18:40
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -11.96%E -3.47%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -4.02%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -13.23%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -2.63%E -0.750%K -1.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:55
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.68%E -3.34%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -13.23%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.41%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 18:29
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.01%E -4.62%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -13.23%E -3.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -8.19%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 18:35
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 46.28%EV -11.35%E -5.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -14.51%E -4.33%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -10.97%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 10:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.43%EV -10.88%E -5.70%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.11%EV -17.06%E -5.25%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.46%EV -19.87%E -6.90%K -10.57%G +0.000%17.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%0.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%0.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.15%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.83%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%2.0%2026-05-03 18:56
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-05-03 18:20