Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.10
assuming max odds 3.76
assuming max odds 3.67
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos (Local): 45.98%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 26.51%; Draw: 27.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.981%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.78%EV -6.67%E -3.28%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV -0.328%E -0.087%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.43%EV +0.981%E +0.267%K +0.367%G +0.004% | 3.1% | 2026-02-26 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.08%EV -3.45%E -1.64%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.58%EV -3.51%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.34%EV -2.60%E -0.733%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-26 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.04%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -3.24%E -0.889%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-26 21:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.04%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -3.24%E -0.889%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-26 21:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 21:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.21%EV -6.21%E -3.04%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.70%EV -6.43%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.09%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.95%EV -3.45%E -1.64%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -1.92%E -0.519%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.95%EV -3.45%E -1.64%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -1.92%E -0.519%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.63%EV -4.83%E -2.33%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 21:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 21:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.94%EV -6.67%E -3.28%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -7.75%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.90%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.00%EV -4.37%E -2.10%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -1.92%E -0.519%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 21:22 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 21:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 21:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 21:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 21:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 21:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 21:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 21:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 21:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 21:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 21:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 21:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 21:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-26 21:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -10.35%E -5.31%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-26 21:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 21:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -3.24%E -0.889%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 21:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-26 21:43 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-26 21:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-26 21:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-26 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-26 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.10%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -12.19%E -6.38%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.72%EV -10.35%E -5.31%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 26.85%EV -11.99%E -3.61%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-26 21:49 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -10.81%E -5.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 21:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.19%EV -10.81%E -5.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -16.50%E -5.24%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-02-26 21:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.10%EV -12.65%E -6.66%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 26.70%EV -13.05%E -3.98%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.20%EV -11.40%E -3.54%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -9.89%E -5.04%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -9.89%E -5.04%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-26 21:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 45.35%EV -14.94%E -8.08%K -17.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.22%EV -15.17%E -4.74%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.44%EV -18.83%E -6.38%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 19.2% | 2026-02-26 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.43%EV -12.19%E -6.38%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.11%EV -13.85%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.46%EV -20.76%E -7.21%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-02-26 21:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.33% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 21:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.99% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12% | 1.6% | 2026-02-26 21:44 |