La escuela de los momios

Santos v Vasco da Gama

Inicio: 2026-02-26 22:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Santos (Local)

Predicción 45.98%2.18momio equitativo
EV -3.45%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -3.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.43%45.99%45.99%47.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.852.012.022.1054.05%49.63%49.50%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Vasco da Gama (Visitante)

Predicción 26.51%3.77momio equitativo
EV -0.328%
Ventaja -0.087%
Kelly -0.119%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.55%26.50%26.58%27.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.153.523.533.7631.75%28.44%28.33%26.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.52%3.63momio equitativo
EV +0.981%
Ventaja +0.267%
Kelly +0.367%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.43%27.51%27.43%29.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.353.353.6734.72%29.88%29.85%27.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet2.03I 49.26%NM 47.78%EV -6.67%E -3.28%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV -0.328%E -0.087%K -0.119%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.43%EV +0.981%E +0.267%K +0.367%G +0.004%3.1%2026-02-26 21:50
Pinnacle2.10I 47.62%NM 46.08%EV -3.45%E -1.64%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.58%EV -3.51%E -0.964%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.34%EV -2.60%E -0.733%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-26 21:45
LowVig.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -3.24%E -0.889%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 21:29
BetOnline.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 46.69%EV -6.21%E -3.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -3.24%E -0.889%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 21:24
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 21:15
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 21:14
GTbets2.04I 49.02%NM 46.21%EV -6.21%E -3.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.70%EV -6.43%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.09%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 21:54
Svenska Spel2.10I 47.62%NM 45.95%EV -3.45%E -1.64%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -1.92%E -0.519%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-26 21:55
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.95%EV -3.45%E -1.64%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -1.92%E -0.519%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-26 21:54
Codere (IT)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.63%EV -4.83%E -2.33%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 21:49
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 21:15
Marathon Bet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.94%EV -6.67%E -3.28%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -7.75%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.90%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 21:54
Coolbet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.00%EV -4.37%E -2.10%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -1.92%E -0.519%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 21:22
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-26 21:19
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-26 21:10
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 21:09
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 21:30
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 21:34
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 21:35
BetUS2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 21:34
BetAnything2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 21:34
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 21:14
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 21:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 21:14
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 21:10
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-26 21:49
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -10.35%E -5.31%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-26 21:09
Unibet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 21:55
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 21:54
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 21:54
Unibet (NL)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 21:54
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 21:55
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 21:55
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 21:44
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -3.24%E -0.889%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 21:10
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 21:55
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 21:55
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -7.82%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-26 21:54
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.75%E -2.80%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 21:43
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -7.13%E -3.53%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -5.90%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-26 21:54
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-26 21:10
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-26 21:54
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-26 21:19
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-26 21:50
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-26 21:49
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-26 21:54
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-26 21:54
TABtouch1.97I 50.76%NM 46.10%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-26 21:54
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -12.19%E -6.38%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-26 21:55
Betclic (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.72%EV -10.35%E -5.31%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.85%EV -11.99%E -3.61%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-26 21:49
Parions Sport (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -10.81%E -5.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-26 21:50
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.19%EV -10.81%E -5.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -16.50%E -5.24%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -10.58%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-26 21:49
Unibet (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 46.10%EV -12.65%E -6.66%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.70%EV -13.05%E -3.98%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.20%EV -11.40%E -3.54%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.2%2026-02-26 21:54
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-26 21:55
Virgin Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -9.89%E -5.04%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-26 21:54
LiveScore Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -9.89%E -5.04%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -8.55%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-26 21:55
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.70%E -4.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-26 21:54
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 45.35%EV -14.94%E -8.08%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.22%EV -15.17%E -4.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.44%EV -18.83%E -6.38%K -9.66%G +0.000%19.2%2026-02-26 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.43%EV -12.19%E -6.38%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.11%EV -13.85%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.46%EV -20.76%E -7.21%K -11.04%G +0.000%17.8%2026-02-26 21:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.33%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%0.9%2026-02-26 21:54
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.99%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12%1.6%2026-02-26 21:44