Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos v Atletico Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos (Local)

Prediction 42.65%2.34fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.827%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.59%42.65%42.71%43.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.3048.78%45.82%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 27.88%3.59fair odd
EV +0.655%
Edge +0.181%
Kelly +0.251%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.74%27.91%27.93%29.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.333.6133.33%30.03%30.03%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.47%3.39fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.836%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%29.44%29.36%31.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.143.153.3036.36%31.88%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos (Local): 42.65%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 27.88%; Draw: 29.47%. For Atletico Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.655%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.71%EV -5.31%E -2.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.88%EV +0.655%E +0.181%K +0.251%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%EV -2.76%E -0.836%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 22:59
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.65%EV -3.18%E -1.40%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.19%EV -0.739%E -0.208%K -0.289%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.16%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 22:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.41%E -0.689%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 23:00
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.41%E -0.689%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 22:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.33%EV -2.76%E -1.21%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.70%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-11 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.33%EV -2.76%E -1.21%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.70%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-11 23:00
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -1.90%E -0.827%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.45%EV -4.46%E -1.99%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.99%EV -6.59%E -2.08%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 23:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.45%EV -4.46%E -1.99%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.99%EV -6.59%E -2.08%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 22:59
BetAnything🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.45%EV -4.46%E -1.99%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.99%EV -6.59%E -2.08%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 22:59
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 22:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.13%EV -7.87%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -8.06%E -2.58%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 22:59
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -9.58%E -4.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 22:59
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -9.58%E -4.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 23:00
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 23:00
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 22:59
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 23:00
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -9.58%E -4.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 22:59
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:00
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:00
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 22:51
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 23:00
GTbets🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.71%EV -5.74%E -2.60%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.34%EV -7.15%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.95%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 22:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 23:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 22:59
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 22:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 23:00
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 22:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -7.02%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 23:00
LeoVegas🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.42%EV -7.45%E -3.43%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 23:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 23:00
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 22:59
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 22:59
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 23:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 23:00
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 22:59
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -8.30%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -14.55%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 23:00
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 22:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.17%E -2.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 22:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.42%EV -9.58%E -4.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 23:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.42%EV -9.58%E -4.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -12.17%E -3.86%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-11 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.64%EV -13.01%E -4.17%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 22:57
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -12.57%E -6.13%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -16.35%E -5.45%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -10.43%E -4.97%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -16.35%E -5.45%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -18.97%E -6.90%K -10.84%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-11 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-11 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-11 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-11 23:00
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.20%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.04%2.4%2026-04-11 23:00
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 44.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%2.8%2026-04-11 23:00
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 41.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.10%2.9%2026-04-11 23:00