L’École des cotes

Palmeiras v Cruzeiro

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 00:00 UTC

Score final : Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Prévision 48.40%2.07cote équitable
EV -3.69%
Avantage -1.85%
Kelly -3.72%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.99

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.58%48.56%48.34%51.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.751.891.911.9957.14%52.84%52.36%50.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cruzeiro (Visiteur)

Prévision 23.32%4.29cote équitable
EV +4.93%
Avantage +1.10%
Kelly +1.41%
Croissance +0.070%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.23%23.15%23.48%24.60%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.094.004.5027.78%24.47%25.00%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.28%3.54cote équitable
EV +1.82%
Avantage +0.505%
Kelly +0.699%
Croissance +0.013%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.92%28.28%28.18%29.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.313.303.6034.72%30.22%30.30%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -9.01%E -4.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%EV +4.93%E +1.10%K +1.41%G +0.070%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV +1.82%E +0.505%K +0.699%G +0.013%3.2%2026-05-16 23:55
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -9.01%E -4.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%EV +4.93%E +1.10%K +1.41%G +0.070%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV +1.82%E +0.505%K +0.699%G +0.013%3.2%2026-05-16 23:55
LowVig.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 49.42%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 23:40
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 49.42%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 23:40
BetAnything1.93I 51.81%NM 49.42%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 23:40
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:35
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:35
Grosvenor1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:35
Unibet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:35
Casumo1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:36
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:35
betPARX1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -11.91%E -6.55%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.60%E +0.592%K +0.766%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.43%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.60%EV -13.37%E -7.47%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV +1.44%E +0.330%K +0.429%G +0.006%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 23:55
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.64%EV -8.04%E -4.23%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV +0.971%E +0.224%K +0.292%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 23:55
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -7.56%E -3.96%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV +0.271%E +0.063%K +0.082%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 23:54
LeoVegas1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -13.85%E -7.78%K -17.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV +0.271%E +0.063%K +0.082%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 23:55
PMU (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -14.82%E -8.42%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -0.895%E -0.211%K -0.275%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 23:55
TABtouch1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -14.82%E -8.42%K -19.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -0.895%E -0.211%K -0.275%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 23:55
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -15.30%E -8.74%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -0.895%E -0.211%K -0.275%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 23:55
LiveScore Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -15.30%E -8.74%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -0.895%E -0.211%K -0.275%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 23:55
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 48.88%EV -4.17%E -2.11%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.82%EV -1.13%E -0.266%K -0.348%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -3.27%E -0.957%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-16 23:55
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 48.77%EV -3.69%E -1.85%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.94%EV -1.36%E -0.322%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.29%EV -2.99%E -0.872%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 23:50
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -9.49%E -5.08%K -10.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -2.06%E -0.491%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 23:31
GTbets1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -9.01%E -4.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.60%EV -2.99%E -0.720%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.40%EV -2.99%E -0.872%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 23:10
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.39%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 23:31
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.39%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 23:30
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.39%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 23:39
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.39%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 23:40
Marathon Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.85%EV -7.56%E -3.96%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -5.56%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.11%EV -6.10%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 23:45
Coolbet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.405%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 23:35
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -4.17%E -2.11%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 23:31
Codere (IT)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 23:35
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 23:36
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -6.59%E -3.41%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 23:54
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 23:30
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 23:31
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 23:30
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -10.46%E -5.66%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.72%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 23:54
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -4.17%E -2.11%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.89%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 23:31
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -4.17%E -2.11%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.89%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 23:30
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 49.02%EV -8.04%E -4.23%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.89%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 23:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 23:30
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 23:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 23:30
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -8.04%E -4.23%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 23:35
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -8.04%E -4.23%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 23:35
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 23:31
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 23:30
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 23:31
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -5.62%E -2.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 23:31
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 48.09%EV -11.43%E -6.25%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.57%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -15.15%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-16 23:55
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.56%E -3.96%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -11.39%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 23:30
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.34%EV -10.46%E -5.66%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -11.39%E -3.00%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.12%EV -10.06%E -3.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-16 23:35
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 46.58%EV -4.17%E -2.11%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -12.55%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 23:31
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -8.04%E -4.23%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -12.55%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 23:35
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.29%EV -9.01%E -4.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.55%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 23:36
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.38%EV -12.88%E -7.16%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.53%EV -13.72%E -3.71%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.09%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-16 23:35
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.94%EV -10.95%E -5.95%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -16.05%E -4.46%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-16 23:36
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.65%EV -11.43%E -6.25%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -16.05%E -4.46%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.64%EV -18.55%E -6.44%K -9.87%G +0.000%17.1%2026-05-16 23:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-05-16 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-05-16 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-05-16 23:50
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-05-16 23:50
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-05-16 23:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-05-16 23:35